Braskem SA (BAK): Taurus’s case theory

We encountered a Saudi thesis On Braskem SA on Lasse’s Substack by Lasse. In this article, we will summarize the bull thesis on Back. Braskem SA share was traded at $ 3.2,000 as of August 8^Y. Bak’s Thurly and Forward P/E 8.44 and 9.78, respectively, according to Yahoo Finance.

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Braskem offers a convincing investment opportunity “Cycle + Overhang” at the sales burnt levels, providing a large aspect if Polyolefin is spreading to resale or if there is a binding environmental clarity or a reliable strategic interest. In the middle of the session, Ebitda is estimated at $ 1.9-2.0 billion dollars, with the support of the spread of natural ullevin and the rates of use, which means that the value of the institution ranges approximately $ 11.4-12.0 billion dollars in multiple 6X.

With the amended debts of about $ 8.7 billion, this translates into the value of royal rights ranging from 2.7 – 3.3 billion dollars, or approximately $ 6.7 – $ 8.2 per AdR, compared to current prices near $ 3. Braskem’s profits are very sensitive to the spread of poly Olivin’s spread, with an increase of every $ 50/tons that are likely to add between 450 to $ 500 million in EBITDA, translate into EV materials and raise the share price. The two main stimulus can open: linking environmental accuracy that limits cash flows related to the AlaGAS catastrophe, and a strategic sale, strategic treatment, or share that can reset profit forecasts and evaluation complications.

While the Brazil import tariff for chemicals increases, some rear winds provide, the thesis does not depend on this. The scenario of the negative side assumes a long weak spread and an environmental opponent higher than expected, which is likely to pay stock values about $ 2.0-2.5 per ADR, while the bull bull with faster normalization and a binding cover can pay values that exceed $ 11 per ADR per AdR and country risks in this aspect.

Main operators include prevalence and sustainable use, environmental settlement clarity, and integration and purchase developments. The risks include twice as long as long goods, exceeding environmental costs, and liquidity pressure. In general, Braskem is a cash generator through the course as if the recovery was impossible, as it provides an attractive risk/reward for disciplined investors who have been prepared to work on the authenticated stimuli.

Previously, we covered a file Saudi thesis On Rayonier Advanced Mateials Inc. (Ryam) by Value Degen in June 2025, which highlighted its periodic nature and buying from the inside as major engines. The company’s share price has been estimated at about 17.5 % since our coverage, which reflects the increasing investor confidence. Lasse shares a similar thesis in Braskem, focusing on environmental clarity and strategic stimuli in a different industry, which provides a distinguished opportunity.