summary
Investors are usually optimistic to start the year, putting new money to work in the market and often benefit from strong market returns in January and the first quarter. To reach this conclusion, we analyzed data collected on the performance of the S&P 500 from 1980 to 2024. According to our calculations, the stock market in January advanced by 1.0% on average, while the first quarter had an average gain of 2.3%. . The first quarter was fairly steady as well, with a win percentage of 67%. This means that stock returns are positive in the first quarter for approximately two years out of three. The first quarter has certainly posted its share of old cars, including in 2022, as investors worry that the Federal Reserve has rolled back the inflation curve. Let’s also not forget 2020, when the coronavirus hit and the S&P 500 fell 20%. In 2009, after the collapse of Lehman Brothers and while the US economy was experiencing a deep recession, stocks fell by 12%. In 2001, when the dot-com bear market began, shares fell 12% again. Investors also pay close attention to returns at the beginning of the year due to the so-called “January effect.” This axiom assumes that January market returns tend to indicate full-year results. For example, when January returns are positive,…
https://s.yimg.com/cv/apiv2/social/images/yahoo_default_logo.png
Source link