As the Nobel Prize goes to the Venezuelan opposition leader, how far will Trump go to help her?

Maria Corina Machado’s Nobel Prize win was widely welcomed by the opposition in Venezuela.

The hope is to attract renewed international attention to their cause.

In response to the award, Machado directly asked for help from the man he hoped would win it.

“Today, more than ever, we depend on President Trump,” Machado said.

It hopes that with the help of him, the United States, other countries in Latin America, and “the democratic countries of the world,” Venezuela will achieve freedom and democracy.

The question is: How far will Donald Trump go?

There is a lot at stake in Venezuela right now.

Imagine a country where millions of people live in poverty. Basic services, such as electricity, are unreliable in many areas. The health system is suffering from a crisis, with a severe shortage of medicines. Millions of citizens have fled in recent years, many to the United States or neighboring countries.

The recent elections have been widely rejected internationally as neither free nor fair. Security forces suppressed the protests after the vote, arresting many people. Human rights organizations believe there are still hundreds of political prisoners.

Recently, the United States has begun bombing boats off the country’s coast – in international waters – that it claims are carrying drug traffickers. Lawyers say the strikes may violate international law.

This is just a quick overview of the situation in and around Venezuela at the moment. In any other world, it would be a huge story.

But the opposition, which the United States and others say won the last election, is left with few clear paths forward to bring about real change.

Machado, its de facto leader, is hiding in Venezuela. Opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzalez, who is recognized by the United States and other countries as president-elect, lives in exile. Both face threats and the government has accused them of “treason.”

Machado appeared briefly at a protest before President Nicolas Maduro’s inauguration in January, but was arrested and then released.

The pace of the widespread protests that took place after the last elections declined, due to fears of their repercussions on the demonstrators.

The opposition’s calls for the army and security forces to abandon President Maduro have so far not resulted in major defections. These militias, and other major militias, remain loyal to the president.

But there is a question about how far the opposition’s allies – including the United States – might be willing to go to intervene.

In recent weeks, the United States has bombed at least four boats in the Caribbean Sea off the coast of Venezuela in international waters, killing at least 21 people. The United States claims they are drug smuggling ships, but has not provided any details about those on board.

Some lawyers believe the strikes violate international law, but a leaked memo recently sent to Congress said the United States now defines itself as being in a “non-international armed conflict” — suggesting it intends to justify using wartime powers against alleged cartels.

While it is true that cartels, such as Tren de Aragua, have a presence in the region, some of these ships allegedly came from Venezuela – this is by no means the biggest trafficking hotspot in Latin America.

This has led many in the region to suspect that Donald Trump’s real goal with these strikes, along with strengthening the US military presence in the region, is to exert military pressure on Maduro and remove him from power.

The Pentagon has now reportedly built up a force of thousands of troops in the region and is planning potential military operations. Special operations forces have been seen on neighboring Caribbean islands, such as Trinidad and Tobago.

Grenada’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said it is reviewing the US government’s request to install radar equipment and temporary technical staff at its airport.

Venezuelan Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino Lopez warned of possible US attacks using drones or special forces carrying out “selective assassinations.” The president of neighboring Colombia, Gustavo Petro, said that “a new war scenario has begun” in the Caribbean.

In Venezuela, civilian reserve forces were preparing for a possible US attack.

US administration officials say Maduro sits at the head of the Venezuelan cartel network, something he denies, so it is believed the US will argue that his removal from power is ultimately an “anti-drug” operation.

In August, the United States doubled the reward for any information leading to his arrest to $50 million, and accused him of being “one of the largest drug traffickers in the world” – something the government rejected as “pathetic.”

Venezuela has cooperated with some repatriation flights for migrants from the United States, but this has not succeeded in allaying Trump’s anger toward Maduro.

On Friday, The New York Times reported that Venezuelan officials had offered the Trump administration a controlling stake in Venezuela’s heavily sanctioned oil, gold and mineral resources — but the Trump administration rejected the offer.

The Trump administration may have dismissed the Nobel Peace Prize committee as being “political” for not awarding it to the US president. But for now, he remains an ally of the Venezuelan opposition and a fierce opponent of Maduro.

It remains unclear whether the United States will maintain operations to target these small ships in the Caribbean Sea — or has broader plans to target more prominent figures within the Maduro administration.

Venezuela may not have many allies on the world stage, but there are notable exceptions including China, Russia, Iran, and Cuba.

If the United States decides to intervene on Venezuelan territory, the situation could escalate very quickly.