As the Japanese opposition revolves around trying to unite, Takaichi’s path to power narrows

Under normal circumstances in Japan, the leader of the ruling party serves as prime minister, especially between election cycles.

But these are not normal times in Tokyo, with outgoing Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba remaining in the caretaker position after his resignation. On September 7th.

Sanae Takaichi, the current head of Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party and the woman expected to become the country’s first female prime minister, faces a tougher road to power after the surprise exit of coalition partner Komeito Party.

comedy Sudden withdrawal From the ruling coalition on October 10, the LDP was left with a smaller minority in Japan’s parliament, opening the door to potential turmoil in the opposition.

A vote to choose the next prime minister was initially scheduled for Wednesday, but the Komeito party’s withdrawal led to Parliament’s extraordinary session being postponed to October 21, according to Bloomberg News. Local media Reports.

Before the collapse of the ruling coalition last Friday. Opposition unity It seemed unlikely.

But during the weekend, The Japan Times reported The main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP) intends to enlist the support of the Komeito Party for a joint prime ministerial candidate.

Meanwhile, the Democratic Party for the People, the fourth largest party in the House of Representatives, ruled out forming a new coalition with the Liberal Democratic Party. Democratic Progressive Party leader Yuichiro Tamaki has reportedly said that he would be willing to serve as prime minister if nominated by the CDP.

Other local Media reports She has too He said It is possible that Tamaki will emerge as a candidate with a unanimous opposition to rally around him.

The Liberal Democratic Party remains the largest voting bloc in the House, holding 196 seats in the 465-seat House of Representatives.

A note from Bank of America stated that attention will focus on the two-stage runoff vote to choose the prime minister, where the two winners in the first ballot will face off if no candidate wins an absolute majority. If the House and Senate choose different candidates, the House’s choice takes precedence.

“Although they struggle for unity, the three main opposition parties… together hold more seats than the LDP. We therefore need to monitor the debate over which individual parties (including Komeito) intend to support in the runoff vote,” the Bank of America note said.

If the CDP, DPP and Nippon Ishin unite, they would hold 210 seats, which is still short of the 233 seats needed for a majority, but more than the 196 seats held by the LDP.

The end of the partnership between the LDP and Komeito may free up the LDP to advance long-sought policy goals, Tomohiko Taniguchi, special adviser at the Fujitsu Center for Future Studies, told CNBC.Squawk Asia Fund“.

He noted that when Komeito was in the Japanese government, the LDP had to make concessions, especially when it came to social issues.

“But with Komeito now out, the LDP led by Takaishi, if she becomes prime minister, will be able to pursue policies that the LDP has always wanted to pursue, including some tax breaks and changes to the tax system,” Taniguchi said.

Jesper Kohl, senior director at Monex Group, said Komeito, with its dwindling support, had “overshot its target” for the LDP.

“Takaishi is forcing the issue and thus setting the direction for a new neo-liberal party,” Cole said.

But other analysts were more critical of Takaishi. A November 13 memo from Quantum Strategy described Takaishi’s leadership as faltering, saying she had “made a whole breakfast out of it” by losing the LDP’s coalition partner of 26 years.

Even if she were to secure the premiership, Quantum warned, she would be a “lame duck” leader with limited ability to govern.

Barring early elections, the next general elections are not scheduled to be held before October 2028.