Customers in the waiting list outside the Apple store before working hours during the first day of selling the iPhone 15 smartphone in Mumbai, India, on Friday, September 22, 2023.
Dhiraj Singh | Bloomberg Gety pictures
This report is a “Inside India” newsletter in CNBC for this week, which brings you a timely and timely news to emerging power and major companies behind the height of a meteor. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.
The big story
The general consensus was that US President Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi held a successful meeting in Washington last month. What is the mistake that happened – and why was Apple were arrested in the middle?
For each person to speed – commercial conversations appear to be collapsing between the two countries before the deadline on April 2 when the Trump tariff in India was applied.
Trump has long criticized India for its high tariff, among the highest rates in Asia. The analysis of Barclays shows that the weighted average of India’s definitions of all imports is 11.5 %. The other main concern of Washington is the trade deficit in the United States and the spacious India.
Last week, Indian Minister of Trade Pion Joyal went to Washington to make more concessions, including cutting customs tariffs on major American imports in the hope that India will be granted, in return, an exemption from the mutual tariff in Washington. However, the Trump commercial team does not seem to budge, for all sources close to New Delhi. This raises alarm bells.
The technology industry – especially Apple that makes approximately 15 % of iPhone devices in India, will lose, according to Analyst Bank of America.
Ended smartphones that are currently entering India are facing a 16 % -20 % tariff, while the customs tariff on Indian phones that are sold in the United States is 0 %, according to Barclays.
“If the Indian Smartphone Exports, which recently chose-will face a similar tariff in the United States, it may deal with an early blow to the cycle of life to the (Indian) electronics industry, which reflects the entire list of China +1,” according to Venugopal Garre, the head of India’s research in India.
Garre believes that the additional cost of tariffs will make Indian electronics, including the country’s iPhone, which are less competitive compared to manufactured devices in other countries.
Renewing the manufacturing sector in India
Bank of America also believes that the proposed definitions of India are likely to rise the prices of iPhone devices.
This is important. Apple was the adherent child to stimulate manufacturing in India, which many see as a case study on how to win the foreign company in the country. Joyl indicated the success of Apple when the American semiconductor companies are placed to expand India.
NVIDIA is currently working with India Religue Industries on AI Research, while AMD and Micron pledge to expand in India. Apple CEO Tim Cook, who planted a strong relationship with Moody, Go to the country To open four retail stores in 2023.
India has played an important role in helping Apple to diversify its supply chain and become less dependent on China. In addition to iPhone devices, it has started to manufacture other products in the emerging market, including iPads and AirPods.
“45 % of the total Apple revenue in China has been built, but they want to reach the level of 30 %,” Jin Monster, the Deepwateer Asset Management, told CNBC by phone. However, experts said that high definitions can challenge Apple’s expansion and reduce the company’s total return on investing in India.
“I think Apple wants to send a message to New Delhi to motivate them to negotiate and press for an equal tariff structure,” said Patrick Moraid, one of the senior technology executives and co -founder of thesixfivemeedia.
CNBC communicate with Apple to comment and have not heard again.
Moorhead studies the Apple supply chain and believes that it has the ability to convert some manufacturing among Asian manufacturing sites throughout India, China and Vietnam, if needed.
At this stage, the only isolated country will be more isolated than customs tariffs is Vietnam, which is likely to be due to the low trade imbalance between the United States and Vietnam.
Reducing the effect of definitions
There are other options.
When looking at potential strategies that technology companies can use to reduce the effect of China’s tariff, analysts in Morgan Stanley writes that one of the alternatives is to charge “goods near the United States from China to a third -party country before the announcement of goods.”
The same applies to India.
If the trade war raises speed, technology companies may also be stimulated to not explore the diversification of their supply chain in countries to additional countries, but three or four, to ensure their ability to convert as needed. It is definitely a great pledge. It can take a store in a new country three to five years. Since the supply chain experts who participated with CNBC, it takes some time to prepare a new factory, build relationships with local suppliers and employ appropriate talent, all with the required permits from the local government.
However, since the customs tariff becomes an increasingly economic weapon, multinational companies such as Apple may have to use a pile of money to spread the manufacturing fingerprint than it already. China +1 may need to change China +3.
This may mean that Apple produces fewer phones in India than previously estimated.
The supply chain elasticity, despite the expensive, can be a Apple tariff storm. What India’s aspirations do in being the available destination for companies that look forward to moving away from China is another matter.
You need to know
Inflation in India is more expected in February. Country The consumer price index came by 3.61 % On an annual basis, the Ministry of Statistics and the implementation of the program in the country said on Wednesday. Reuters Updated Economists expected 3.98 % to read this period. This is the first time since last summer, as inflation came without the goal of the Indian Reserve Bank, which is 4 % and represents the slightest monthly printing since July 2024.
Benefits of listing on the National Stock Exchange in India. “” Converge directly It happened in Singapore on Wednesday. He said that India is in a place where there is “a lot of minds, many institutions and very few prices,” and pointed out that.The Indian market was the largest number of lists in the world in 2024.
Indusind urges calm after discovering the accounting contradiction. On March 10, the Indian stock exchanges were informed that it was discovered during the internal audit cases regarding jobs related to derivative trading. As a result of the separator, the bank estimates that its net wealth will take a 2.5 % blow. but, Indusind reassured investors that they are still with good capitalAnd, causing shares to recover on Wednesday after they fell on Tuesday.
What happened in the markets?
Indian stocks continued their gains this week.
As of 11.15 am local time on March 13, the standard Elegant 50 The index increased by 0.21 % while the broader Sensex index was 0.15 % higher.
Indian government bonds revenue decreased for 10 years, which decreased slightly to 6.708 %.
On CNBC TV this week, PRAMOD GUBI, the founder of Marcelus Investment, believes that the tax cuts of the Indian government in its last budget in the union are not “meaningful enough to transfer the needle” on Indian consumption shares. This is partly due to the fact that the country has witnessed “three good years of strong growth of consumption” after the epidemic, which is fueled by bank loans to retail and consumers, which led to the benefit of Gubbi spending. So, Consumers provide more to pay this debt And withdraw again on expenses.
Meanwhile, the president of MAERSK in North America told Charles van der Stein Lori Ann Laroco from CNBC that “the tariff will never disrupt the supply chain.” Although commercial barriers may affect one side of the global supply chain, there will be other countries that intervene to compensate for this turmoil. India, in particular, will Keep its importance within the global supply chain Because South Asia provides companies with production capacity as companies diversify away from China due to the Trump tariff.
What happens next week?
India is issuing data on the wholesaler index in February on Monday, and market monitors hope that it will come more than expected, such as the consumer price index per month. Meanwhile, the American Federal Reserve concludes its meeting on Wednesday, which is expected to hold constant interest rates.
March 14: India’s commercial balance for the month of February, surveying consumer morale at the University of Michigan, USA, in March, GDP in the United Kingdom for the month of January
March 17: Wholesale price index in India for the month of February, Industrial production and retail sales sales in China from January to February, US retail sales for February
March 19: The interest rate decision in the United States, Consumer price index in the euro area for February
March 20: The interest rate decision in China for one and five years, the UK interest rate decision
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