- Protests against ice raids In the Los Angeles region this weekend, repression is highlighted on illegal workers in companies and the total impact of immigration, legal or otherwise, on the economy. The migration collapse is a bigger shock than President Donald Trump’s tariff, German bank He said.
President Donald Trump Mobilization of the National Guard forces in California To protect immigration officers from demonstrators highlights a campaign against uncomfortable workers and the economic impact of a sudden decrease in the display of employment.
The protests began in Los Angeles on Friday, when the federal customers arrived in the uniform, tactical jackets, and helmets into armored vehicles to carry out a raid on a wholesale merchant for clothes. It was the latest in a series of similar prominent operations in Companies all over the country.
Also on Friday, the Ministry of Labor issued a monthly job report, which showed the contraction of the American workforce in May, where he saw the number of foreign workers born. The largest successive decrease since 2020. This comes after an increase in immigration during the Biden administration helped enhance economic activity.
According to the analysis of Deutsche Bank of Customs data and US borders, the number of meetings in the southwestern border decreased to 12,000 people per month since Trump’s opening from 200,000 on average during the year and a half between January 2022 and June 2024.
“While everyone focuses on the impact of definitions, the true story of the American economy is the collapse of immigration: more than 90 % decreased compared to the rate of operation of previous years, which is equivalent to a slowdown in the work of the workforce for more than 2 million people,” George Saravilus, head of FX research at Deutshe Bank, wrote, in Friday note. “This represents a more sustainable negative shock to the economy than customs tariffs.”
While Trump pointed to the weak growth of salary statements as reasons for the federal reserve to reduce interest rates, his immigration campaign gives the central bank, which already warns of the inflationary impact of its definitions, which is another reason to wait and see.
This is because the workforce that grows more does not need a lot of employment to accommodate the extra supply of employment. In fact, even with the average payment of salary statements to 124,000 per month this year from 250,000 in 2024, the unemployment rate has been around 4.2 % since last summer.
The Wall Street sees a less equal rate for job growth, or that the amount of employment needs to maintain a stable unemployment rate. By the end of this year, this pace must decrease to 90,000 per month from 170,000 now and 210,000 last year, according to Morgan StanleyThat was cited the deportation and immigration is slower.
Deutsche Bank warned of the collapse of migration that will have wider financial traces, including the dollar, which was already beaten by the Trump aggressive campaign.
“Last year we were writing that the United States was taking advantage of a mixture of Goldilocks from the growth of high employment and low wages specifically due to high migration numbers,” said Saravilus. “If the last immigration trends persist, this must follow that throughout the year, the opposite will happen. As the energy shock 2022 shows, the negative show shock is not good news for the currency.”
This story was originally shown on Fortune.com
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