Analysis: After the war with Israel, how is Hezbollah reassembled in Lebanon? | Israel is attacking Lebanon

A year after the assassination of Israel from Hassan Nasrallah, reports say that Hezbollah, the Lebanese group that led it, is re -assembled its ranks.

Analysts believe that although the weak Hezbollah is no longer able to form a major threat to Israel, it can still create chaos and challenge the opponents locally because it tries to find a political foot to maintain its influence.

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Since Hezbollah is the strongest non -governmental armed actor in the region, its star found diminished last year, and reached its climax in an international and home batch until it is completely armed.

Analysts believe that the pressures dealt with recklessly can lead to the group’s exit and creation of an internal conflict that can exceed international and regional batches.

Hezbollah’s speech is still challenging, and it has promised to reject the Lebanese government efforts to disarm it – as its current leader, Naymis Qassem, repeated on Saturday to a crowd of thousands of people who gathered in the grave of Nasrallah to celebrate his assassination.

He said to the crowd: “We will never give up our weapons, nor will we give it up,” adding that Hezbollah will continue to “confront any project that serves Israel.”

There is no procedure yet

Hezbollah began circulating attacks with Israel on October 8, 2023, the latter’s day after its war on Gaza. This continued until September 2024, when the intensification of the Israeli army and the subsequent invasion were killed about 4,000 people in Lebanon, with thousands of others and explained hundreds of thousands.

By the time when the ceasefire was announced on November 27, many of the Hezbollah military command, including Nasrallah, the group’s Secretary -General, was killed by Israel.

The conditions for the ceasefire were defined badly, according to diplomatic sources in the agreement, but the public’s understanding was that both sides would stop the attacks, so Hezbollah will remove its weapon in southern Lebanon and Israel will withdraw its forces from the south. But shortly after, Israel and the United States argued that Hezbollah must fully remove its weapon.

Upon seeing him weak, the local and regional Hezbollah opponents began calling on the group to abandon its weapons. With the changing regional winds sensing, many Hezbollah allies jumped on board and expressed their support for complete disarmament.

The Lebanese government, under pressure from the United States and Israel, announced on September 5 that the Lebanese armed forces are charged with assigning a plan to disarm Hezbollah.

Meanwhile, to Israel Conccreated the ceasefireThe bombing of southern Lebanon. UNIFIL, the United Nations peacekeeping force in the south, said Israel is committing “continuous violations of this arrangement (ceasefire), including air strikes and drones on Lebanese soil.”

Despite media speculation that Hezbollah is re -assembled in southern Lebanon, especially in the anti -Jesus media, it has only made a single attack since the ceasefire was announced in November.

Analysts believe that Hezbollah is no longer in a situation that allows it to threaten Israel, which means that any decision by the latter expanding the attacks in Lebanon will be for considerations other than Hezbollah’s current capabilities.

Hezbollah and its supporters argue that Israel’s threats and continuous violations, as well as its continuous presence in occupying five points on Lebanese territory justifies the need for resistance.

Ali Haider recently wrote: “The continuation of a real threat justifies the preservation of deterrent capabilities and defense because deterrence is not one time event but rather a cumulative process that requires a stable and integrated structure in a broader political context.”

Al -Jazeera contacted Hezbollah to comment, but it did not receive a response before publishing.

What does “re -assemble” mean?

“He has not returned any military or political force in the military force (not) after being defeated as (Hezbollah) did last year,” said Michael Young, a Lebanese analyst and writer.

“But are they in a situation that allows them to rocket mountain and bomb them in northern Israel along the border?

“So what does (re -assemble) mean?”

“Hezbollah is very deteriorating – the drain of leadership, (communications), the breakthroughs and strikes to the leadership and control were real. They will try to recover, but the reasonable path is Hezbollah is smaller, cheaper and more flexible.

“The Israeli assessments themselves indicate that the damage to Hezbollah’s attempts to renew through smuggling/self -production under intense intelligence pressure, indicating that any recovery will be partial, tactical, not structural in the short term.”

In early December, Hezbollah ally, Bashar al -Assad, was dropped in Syria, another blow to the group, as it has crossed a direct way to weapons and financing to reach the group of Iran.

However, in the meantime, analysts said that Hezbollah has been trying to use its remaining influence through diplomacy, until he sent references to enemies for a long time such as Saudi Arabia.

Qasim said in a speech on September 19: “We assure you that the arms of the resistance refer to the Israeli enemy, not Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, or any other place or entity in the world.”

Analysts said that the message to Saudi Arabia, which has previously funded Hezbollah’s opponents in Lebanon, is part of a shift in the group’s strategy.

“There is a hint that they feel that they can deal with things politically,” Young said. “They may feel that they do not need to resort to strength or weapons if they can get more system.”

It is also a reflection of the new political reality in Lebanon and the region, where Israel and the United States rose to power, and Hezbollah’s close ally has fallen.

Lebanese political analyst Karim Emile Emile Betar told Al -Jazeera: “Hezbollah began to realize that it is besieged,” Lebanese political analyst Karim Emile Emile Betar told Al -Jazeera.

Before the war, Hezbollah had the ability to make or break governments. But President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam were elected in early 2025, although he was not the preferred candidate for Hezbollah.

However, Hezbollah was either unwilling or unable to disrupt the formation of a peace government. Analysts said that the group is in urgent need of external aid that the government can secure to help rebuild its electoral districts, which was affected by the Israeli attacks.

But this money has not yet reached because there is a regional and local discussion on whether the government should receive reconstruction funds before disarming Hezbollah and other banking or political reforms.

Analysts and diplomats told Al -Jazeera Hezbollah that it is still able to raise tensions, but they avoided fueling any flames due to the increasing support of the Lebanese state, as well as the fatigue and shock that Hezbollah suffers from and its supporters due to last year last year. The continued Israeli attacks on Lebanon.

However, on Thursday, Hezbollah supporters flocked to Beirut Beach on the anniversary of Nasrallah. Supporters presented the image of their late leader on Raouche rocks, challenging orders from the Prime Minister who banned the law.

The event was seen as an expression of Nasrallah’s love by his supporters and provocation by Hezbollah’s opponents. But the group that threatened violence To reach its path in the past, avoid provocations to a large extent since the war, regardless of the accidental attempts to prevent the roads that were quickly reopened by the Lebanese army.

If Hezbollah is continuing to re -assemble the military, a large Western diplomat said familiar with this issue, it will be likely to be in the Becca Valley in the south, where the ceasefire mechanism was largely effective in overseeing the withdrawal of Hezbollah.

However, the group appears to change its political strategy, adding that Hezbollah, through instructions from Iran, may ultimately search for some settlements.

He referred to proposals by parliamentarians Ali Hassan Khalil, Hezbollah ally, and Ali Fayyad, MP Hezbollah, in sub -extinguals, where they talked about the implementation of the TA’EF system in 1989.

“If we apply TA’EF completely, this can give us a greater role in better acting, and then we can talk about weapons,” Young said.

“Hezbollah’s time to go”?

Amid the intense pressure to disarm Hezbollah, analysts and diplomats fear that if it is severely pressed, the group can go out.

The United States has announced a $ 14.2 million aid package for the Lebanese army to help it disarm Hezbollah, and visits by US officials – including Republican Senator Lindsay Graham, Deputy Special Envoy Morgan Ortridos and a special envoy Tom Barak – pressure on Lebanon.

“It is time for Hezbollah to go,” Graham said during his visit in late August.

But the Lebanese army refused to set a strict schedule to disarm Hezbollah because of the fears that the tense situation in Lebanon could descend into violence.

American aid news has been received badly in parts of Lebanon, as it is seen as part of an American effort to use the army Lebanon to implement Israeli interests.

“(The Lebanese army) will never act as a border guard for Israel. Its weapons are not weapons, and its mission is sacred: to protect Lebanon and the Lebanese people.”

The concerns of diplomats and analysts are that the confrontation between the army and Hezbollah can lead to the internal conflict and the potential breaking of the army along the recognition lines-according to what happened in the early days of the Lebanese Civil War 1975-1990.

((Hezbollah’s disarmament by force) is the worst possible choice, but it is clear that this is what the Americans are increasing from the Lebanese government to resolve this, “Young told Al -Jazeera.

“The Lebanese army is not ready to resolve it by using force because they do not want to pushing them to conflict with Hezbollah.”