American risks to barter against Iranian revenge

While Donald Trump gathered with consultants in the White House parking room, which weighs whether to join Israel in the amazing Iran, the American president will also consider how Tehran take revenge.

The supreme leader of Iran warned Ayatollah Ali Khawseni Washington of “irreparable damage” if the United States joins the war of the Islamic Republic.

This may include direct attacks on American forces or diplomatic missions in the Middle East, electronic attacks, terrorism, or strikes by Tehran agents in the region, or disrupting oil and gas shipments outside the Gulf, which is the largest screaming area in the world.

“It is possible that Trump will hear the list of open options to Ayatollah: attacking American ships and bases, or attacking Gulf allies such as Saudi Arabia or the United Arab Emirates,” said Elliot Abrams, who was the special representative of Iran and Venezuela in the first Trump administration.

A third option for IranAbrams said that the “closing” of the Strait of Hermoz, the narrow waterway that a third of crude in the world is going through every day. He said that this “would (raise) global oil prices immediately.”

Since his return to Washington from the 7 Group Summit in Canada, Monday evening, Trump His advisers met with the highest intelligence, security and defense twice in the chamber of the situation, the center of the intelligence president in the western wing of the White House. A third meeting will be held on Thursday. A decision has not yet been taken whether the United States will fully join the war.

On Wednesday, six days after Israel launched its attack on Iran, Trump said next week will be “very large” in determining the course of the new conflict – and whether the United States will participate.

“I have ideas about what to do, but I did not make a final procedure, I would like to make one second final decision before it is entitled … because things change … especially with the war.”

While he was speaking, American military origins, including the new aircraft carrier group, were. On their way to the Middle East.

But Iran was “now prepared” for Counstrike against the United States, with a “group of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and drones” can use to strike US bases and ships.

Kendall said this does not mean that he would do it immediately. He added that it will be a “escalation question” for the Iranians, and “an account of the additional attacks that will be reshaped if they respond” to the United States.

The United States has approximately 40,000 soldiers and military in the Middle East, according to an American defense official. It runs eight permanent bases in the region, in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. It also has the presence of 11 other military sites, including in Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Oman, Saudi Arabia and Syria.

The largest American base is an air base in Qatar, the headquarters of the US Central Command, and is responsible for military operations throughout the Middle East. The base includes about 10,000 American soldiers. There are 13500 other forces or so in Kuwait, while another 9,000 resides at the US Navy in Bahrain.

Kendall said that Iran could target sites and bases in the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait. It is equipped with air defenses, but it falls within a range closer to Iran than Israel, which means that short -range missiles can be used and there will be less warning time.

He said: “They are always in a reasonable group of alert due to potential attacks, but I assume (that) above (now).”

The United States also has about 2,500 soldiers in Iraq and hundreds in Syria. These employees can be vulnerable to attacks by Iranian-backed Shiite militants-who in the past fired missiles and drones on American assets and forces-as well as from Iran’s missiles.

Another danger that Trump should consider is that the United States can fail to destroy Fordo, the Iranian nuclear facility buried half a kilometer under the mountain.

Fordow is one of the main Iranian Iranian facilities in uranium, Israel and Israel is the key to its destruction to eliminate the Republic’s nuclear program. Iran says the program is dedicated to civil purposes.

The demolition of the underground facility can decrease the United States 300,000 lb “Bunker Buster” bombs From hidden launchers.

But the task will be risk – and it may fail.

“It is possible that” it is still “possible to represent a challenge to the efforts of non -spread.”

Iran can also restore its ranks and be more determined to develop a nuclear weapons program. The Republic had already enriched uranium at levels close to the degree of weapons.

“Any additional damage will return them perhaps years, but it will not prevent them from reshaping or continuing a program to gain nuclear weapons,” Kendall said.

Iran can also re -punish the economic impact by targeting energy supplies outside the Gulf.

In 2019, weaknesses were subjected to a missile attack and drones blamed Iran for half of crude oil production in Saudi Arabia. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states have been involved in recent years in Diet Iran, and seek to reduce tensions and ward off more strikes.

Kendall said Iran can use rapid attack boats, submarines and wild weapons to combat ships to strike sailing ships, in the Strait of Hormuz, Iran can use rapid attack boats, submarines and wild weapons to strike sailing ships. Instead, the waterway can be intended.

But Iran also uses the strait for its own oil exports, the main source of foreign currency. Kendall added that this may reduce the risk of targeting Tehran, but the ships will remain “vulnerable to attack.”

Since the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023 on Israel, the Iranian -backed Houthis in Yemen has already disrupted severe maritime traffic across the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, despite months of air strikes targeted by the United States.

Hillima Krovte, a former CIA analyst and head of the global strategy at RBC Capital Markets, said it is concerned about the exposure of Iraq, which results from a 4 ml oil barrel per day. “The Iranian -backed militias that operate near these facilities,” she told the World Energy Council Forum on Wednesday.

Other experts said they believed that the bombing of Israel, which killed many major military commanders in Iran and destroyed missile and plant launchers, was the weakest of Iran’s ability to take revenge on the United States.

Israel has destroyed most of the Iranian air defenses in recent days and has almost air hegemony over the republic, which may help persuade the United States to beat.

The main agent of Iran, the Lebanese Armed Armed Party, Hezbollah, was also included after Israel launched a series of devastating attacks on the group last year.

Eric Ravin, Undersecretary of the US Navy, said that there are “big defects” for Iran using missiles and drones for revenge.

He added: “The American missile defense systems (f) American missile defense systems are very capable.” “There is no opportunity for these attacks that achieve any of its political goals. The account is everything dangerous, no reward.”

Brett McGurk, a White House coordinator in the Middle East during Joe Biden, said that the United States was planning and training on a possible Fordo mission for “10 or 15 years.”

He said that the plans have been refined in the last two years from the presidency of Biden, and “the window of the ability to a military option is now very open.”