When President Donald Trump gave his speech on April 2, announcing a comprehensive tariff across a group of sectors, The market reaction was sharp. Investors are afraid of re -displaying sabotage commercial battles in their first term and stocks Decline When they tried to evaluate how the new drawings are crowned with global supply chains.
But after six months, the story looks different. A lot of initial panic faded, and it was replaced by a recognition that the real economic impact of Trump’s definitions has been diluted Sculpture, Negotiation Deals, and Exemptions. In fact, stocks It was taken from a multiple loss series On Friday, his reaction was almost ignoring the latest surprise from Trump’s social media account.
Now, while Trump is trying to re -ignite the trade war with overnight advertisement Of a large number of customs tariffs, including 100 % tariffs on pharmaceutical patents and plays by 50 % on furniture imports, the markets hardly interact.
Michael Brown, a global investment strategy expert in Franklin Templeton, said the markets are “ended”.
“The real level of definitions is much lower, which is one of the reasons why the effect is steadfast,” Brown told Browne. Financial times.
The other reason may be that consumers have proven to be more flexible in the higher prices than economists.
Flasting medications quickly
Initially, the news shook European and Asian drug makers. Typical medications have decreased by approximately 3 %, Novo Nordsk 1.6 % lost, and the Sun Pharmaceutical and Divi laboratories decreased by more than 3 % in early trading. The Stoxx 600 health care index swing between gains and losses before a flat closure.
However, European stocks as a whole were closed higher, confirming how investors are now deducting Trump’s tariff ads.
Stoxx 600 Pan-European today ended 0.8 %, with CAC 40 in Paris increased by 0.97 %, Dax in Frankfurt by 0.87 %, and IBEX 35 gains in Madrid with a rise of 1.3 %.
Jpmorgan’s strategy quickly told the customers that the Parma tariff “can be largely avoided” for companies that expand American manufacturing.
The note said: “We still see a control that can be controlled from customs tariffs to our large coverage.” CNBC.
Flexibility reflects the many points of the drug tariff. Medicines – which account Nine of ten American recipes – are excluded from the new fees. United States – European Union Trade Agreement It limits the duties of most European drug exports to 15 %. And companies that invest actively in American manufacturing, such as Eli Lilyand AstrazenecaRoche, GSKAnd AmgenOnce you exceed the new facilities.
Analysts were fast to highlight these warnings.
“Many large -scale pharmaceutical products should not be exposed because they are involved in the activity of building some kind facilities,” He said Diving vital medications.
The White House pushed the “sculpture”, saying that this is the 232 national security tariff that aims to reformulate cash manufacturing.
Cush Disai spokesman told “Cush Disai” luck. He added that the maximum of 15 % on many European drug exports (and Japanese) reflect broader trade agreements that included “large concessions that prefer the United States”, and not softening the position of customs tariffs.
Consumers are flexible
For investors, the reaction was familiar. The initial volatility has given the way to admit that the customs tariff is rarely widely as announced.
Imports represent only about 10 % of the American economy, giving companies and consumers a field of adaptation. Many companies Merchandise Before the final dates, while others turned into two alternative suppliers.
“The inflation may come through it, but there is no sign of that yet,” said Brown Financial times.
The silent market response also reflects a greater fact: consumers have been much more flexible What most economists expected. The data of the Ministry of Commerce issued on Thursday showed that the American economy grew by 3.8 % in the last quarter, which is the strongest extension since 2023, supported by strong home spending and business investment.
Economists note that Americans’ readiness to maintain shopping, even amid high borrowing costs, has been surprised again and repeatedly from the forecasters.
In the words of the wealth director in Boston Jenna Bulfin, the real lesson may be that “do not fight the federal reserve” has become “not fighting the American consumer.”
Taco
The calm of the markets also reflects a trade they have reached – what analysts call Taco Trade (Trump is always chicken outside). After the shock of “Liberation Day” in April, investors assumed that Trump would follow his fashionable style: the problem of customs tariff threats, and then as soon as the markets began to sway. This confidence has helped stocks to bounce to record the highlands.
The exemptions strengthened this bet. The average actual tariff rate remained Too less than the title numbersThanks to the FAND exemptions on the companies that transport it on American plants.
Economists It can still appear later this year. But so far, inflation data has StableUndermining the predictions that will provide commercial policy consumer shock.
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