Written by Jimmy McGiv
Orlando, Florida (Reuters) – Trading Day
Cautious stability
Global markets were traded equally this week, as the Trump administration struck what could be the first “dozens” of commercial deals in the coming weeks, while investors chanted in US -Chinese trade talks at the end of this week in Switzerland.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq returned to where they were on April 2, when he regained 15 % losses in the days after “Tahrir Day” when Trump revealed his mutual definition, DAX in Germany is at his highest level, and Japanese stocks concluded the best in its week in the weekly victory for more than two years.
Feelings have been strengthened by a wide range of stimulus measures from China, including interest rate discounts and liquidity injection. The Bank of England has also reduced prices and it appears that the Bank of Japan has set an ice -ranging cycle. While the American Federal Reserve did not reduce policy, the markets know their place with it – stability can be as uncertain as well.
On the side of the profits, 450 companies listed at the S&P 500 have reported the results of the first quarter. The growth growth extends by about 14 %, although negative expectations for the second quarter have exceeded positive expectations by approximately 50 %, according to IBES/LSEG analysis.
Caution prevails though, at least in the American market. Despite the wave of commercial optimism, Wall Street and the cabinet did not step down a little a week. Investors were also reminded of the extent of the unintermissive and unexpected American administration – President Donald Trump and Vice President C.
Once the dust and deals are stable, the definitions will be less than that proposed on April 2, and perhaps much less. But the truth is that it will be much higher than they were before Trump entered his position.
As the economist Phil Suttle, the economist has not observed the customs duties yet, but they will do so. It is estimated that the average effective rate of the United States will settle about 22 %, which will be four times an increase when Trump took over. Goldman Sachs economists note that although “difficult” data was flexible, the economy on “slowdown in activity”.
So for investors, this depends on the starting point. Are you relatively optimistic that the customs tariff will not likely be high on April 2, or relatively down because it will be much higher than Trump? With uncertainty very high and very low clarity, the current interrognum may be suitable.
All eyes are now heading to Geneva, where an American delegation led by Treasury Secretary Scott Besin will sit for trade talks with a Chinese team led by the Economic Caesar carried out by Leving. The two markets can be very interesting.
I would like to hear from you, so please contact me with comments in. You can also follow me on @reutsjamie and @Reutersjamie.bsky.social.
Main market movements for this week
* The three main Wall Street indicators, MSCI’s World and Asiaex-Japan Standards are all close on Friday in 0.5 % where they were a week ago. Stability on the surface surface under the cap? * Germany Germany reaches a standard level. This indicator increased by 18 % of this, and an increase of 27 % of the postpartum day on April 7. * Tightening high credit differences in the United States for a fifth week, Aaron did not see in two years, and decreased to 350 basis points. * Bitcoin rises by approximately 10 % above $ 100,000 for the first time since February.
Weekend scheme
Remember Elon Musk and Doug? The Tesla CEO and the social media owner “X” were brought to the Trump administration in January to a sensation, and pledged to take a saw for federal spending and obtain a budget deficit. The final cuts of $ 2 trillion were described.
It is safe to say that his initial efforts did not reduce those noble goals, and Musk has taken a step back from the limelight. As Republicans are ready to complete Trump’s financial package next week, these goals appear out of reach.
The first days of the Trump 2.0 administration indicate that spending has not prevailed at all. In fact, it is higher than it was under Biden’s management.
Morgan Stanley economists said this week they expect the 2026 budget deficit to be 7.1 % of GDP, an increase of 6.7 % in 2025. It will be an increase of about 310 billion dollars. Super numbers can bother investors and put additional pressure on long treasury bonds.
Here are some of the best things that I have read this week:
1. Why does it meaning the dollar 2 agreement.
What can the markets move on Monday?
* A reaction to the commercial talks between the United States of China in Geneva * A reaction to Chinese inflation data on Saturday * Indian inflation (April) * Japan Trade, current account (March) * Meghan Green from the Bank of England, Claire Lombardi, Catherine Man and Alan Taylor speak at the event in London
The views expressed are the views of the author. It does not reflect the opinions of Reuters news, which, according to the principles of confidence, is committed to integrity, independence and liberation from bias.
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(Written by Jimmy McGiv; edited by Nia Williams and Diba Babington)
