A pillar of turmoil with the start of bonus attacks

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The writer is the author, the last of which is, for “Obelands: A Personal History of EUROPE”

The poem we were involved in the Canadian Canadian Rac. Leonard Cohen ends with words: “Oh and something else / you will not love / what comes yet / America.”

With the passage of the eighty anniversary of the end of World War II in Europe, every day provides additional evidence that the United States -led international system has long ended. Everyone is now scrambling to unite what might succeed. A new pole arrangement? Impact areas? A global version of the nineteenth century party? However, the most logical answer is a long and dangerous period of global turmoil.

Of course, there was no golden age for the international liberal regime. But across large areas of the world, in Europe, Asia and Oceania, there was a security and economic system led by “Levishan Liberal”, where Princeton’s researcher John Eckenberry launched after 1945 the United States. This arrangement, which reached Zenith at the beginning of this century, was declining for some time, partially attributed to the “rise of the rest”, which facilitates the globalization led by the United States, partly due to the meditation of tastes in America.

President Donald Trump is now destroying the remaining edifice, unparalleled and recklessly. Even in a state of unlikely that American democracy will emerge safely from four years of the prominent revolution, as much as it comes to relations between the United States and its allies, it will be “a happy morning again” (in the words of Robert Bruning, The lost leader).

With three wars or even four important wars now (Ukraine, Gaza, Sudan, India Nuclear Armed and Pakistan facing Kashmir) and stops three -numbers tariffs between the two largest economies in the world, can they question currently in a period of serious turmoil? Some still hope to show it somewhat soon, either by restoring a miracle of the previous system or by creating a new one. Well, let’s hope, but here are many good causes of doubt about it.

Even if the emerging superpower (China) and a relatively hanging power (United States) is not a fate of falling into “Thucydides Trap” Getting to war, the periods of transformations in the superpower always brings the increase in international tensions. China and Russia leaders were just distinguished by the end of the European part of World War II by meeting in Moscow to reaffirm their partnership against the West. Sheh Jinping, until the “arrogant fascist forces”, which were defeated in 1945, were equivalent to “monochromatic, dominant and bullying” today. (He guessed who is. India has its own national aspirations and obsessive enmity towards China -backed Pakistan.

Besides these competing great powers, there is a group of middle forces such as Türkiye, Brazil and South Africa. Fightly, these countries often see opportunities in the new turmoil. They can comply with one great power for one purposes, and another, all the time they advance their own goals. Meanwhile, small states such as those in the Gulf can play with all the big powers and all the big forces, such as the Egyptian pumping bird that flourishes by cleaning the waste between crocodile teeth.

For 80 years since nuclear weapons were dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, taboos have been used to use. But taking into account the world, a major war by nuclear armed Russia against Ukraine, a country that voluntarily abandons its nuclear weapons in the Soviet era in 1994 in exchange for security assurances from the United States and the United Kingdom and (Black Comedy) Russia, is likely probably for nuclear spread.

South Korea, painful about what North Korea promised in exchange for major military support against Ukraine, has an active discussion about obtaining nuclear weapons – and technology to do so. This issue is in many minds in the Middle East, where this region swings between nuclear armed Israel and Iran is a nuclear threshold, while the Europeans began to feel that they need their own nuclear umbrella.

Meanwhile, the ongoing technological revolution generates new dimensions of geopolitical competition, including data control, programs and communication networks. AI, in particular, brings the risk of a new arms race, which can be predicted more than nuclear in the Cold War. If China could surprise the United States with Deepseek, then why can’t it develop secretly? Population growth and climate change will continue to compete with resources and pressure for collective migration.

Certainly, there are compensatory forces. China has a clear economic interest in maintaining an open global trading system that was the largest individual beneficiary. Even the most opportunistic middle forces should be afraid to become a complete collapse disorder. There are encouraging signs of liberal fighting in Canada, Australia and Europe. Pope Leo XIV is “building bridges” on the troubled ground.

Nothing in history is inevitable. However, those of us who believe in the ideal that can never be achieved for the liberal international system will be well recommended that Cohen’s depression was right. We must be active for a long time of global turmoil.