Where the European Union tariffs will strike hard

Modern data on definitions and consumer decisions are clear: raising prices on the product due to the high import taxes, and consumers will turn into a cheaper alternative.

This does not preach good for some American products, and the states that are produced, such as The United States and the European Union are involved in the threats of sacred tariff. Think of California almond, Tennessi whiskey, and the background mirrors of Michigan.

From 2017-2019, whiskey exports in Tennessee fell to the European Union from 362 million dollars to $ 220 million amid President Donald Trump’s first war, and exports remained low until revenge definitions were suspended, according to a recent research report on commercial partnership around the world. The Trump tariff 2018 was suspended by the Biden Administration in January 2022.

“Once the European Union raises definitions, whiskey exports in Tennessee increased by 42 % the following year,” said Daniel Anthony, head of commercial partnership worldwide. “But Tennessee’s exporters know how to reduce revenge again from sales.”

Thursday , Trump threatened 200 % of the customs tariff for the wine of the European Union and alcoholHe said he “It will not bend at all.” When it comes to the American definitions imposed on the imports of other countries. The Treasury Secretary, Scott Payette, told CNBC that he did not understand Why will the markets make a big deal From this threat, but for some American states, the European Union is a large market.

Contrary to the definitions imposed by the Trump administration, where American trucks must pay customs duties In order to receive its products, a mutual tariff will be imposed on US exports paid by the European Union importers. High prices can decrease demand or stop the market.

Anthony said: “There are expectations of expectations that lose their sales as the European Union consumers turn into less expensive options,” Anthony said.

The data collected by the commercial partnership around the world shows that the value of American exports that can be subject to tariffs will increase five times, from 6 billion dollars (based on the original Trump tariff) to more than 27 billion dollars.

Anthony said: “This is a great expansion of customs tariffs on previous exports,” Anthony said.

European Union Revenge definitions It is set in slices-products that reach the last time they are re-assembled on April 1, then expanded additional products, according to more discussion, which can be enact in mid-April.

On a percentage, a new analysis shows the perfect definitions of the European Union, New York and North Dakota companies, which are likely to have the highest percentage of exports in revenge intersections, which can affect the demand for its goods: New York (39 %), North Dakota (36 %), Nebraska (32 %), and IOWA (26 %), and IWA (26 %).

On the basis of the absolute dollar, some states on the eastern and Gulf coasts with the main ports are among the best states facing a new tariff in the European Union, including New Jersey, Georgia, North, South Carolina, Virginia and Tixas. Products range from these cases wide, from alcohol fermentation barrels to tobacco and tobacco products, peanuts, frozen orange and fresh orange juice, food oils, motorcycles, dishwashers, clothes, shoes, furniture, and carpets.

But Anthony said that almonds in California, Tennessi whiskey, and the background mirrors of Michigan are considered to be some of the best examples of acute risks and the need for the market – “The European Union is the largest buyer of these products and a revenge tariff will hurt much more.”

Brandon Daniels, CEO of EXIger Risk Management, said the European Union’s reprisal tariff puts American whiskey producers in a major competitive position.

Daniels said: “Countries like Tennessee and Kentucky, whose economies are highly dependent on this luxurious export, will feel the sharp economic pressure. This is the place where politics and commercial policy are currently collapsing,” Daniels said.

Companies in Tennessee exports $ 575 million from whiskey to the European Union in 2024 (66 % of their exports to the world).

In 2024, California exported $ 1.2 billion of polished almonds to the European Union. The European Union represents 37 % of California exports to the world.

Among Michigan, companies exported $ 519 million of the European Union back mirrors in 2024 (48 % of their exports to the world).

In the auto sector, companies have a larger space for negotiation.

Daniels said: “In the conflicts of the previous customs tariffs, we saw that the American exporters of critical car components – such as Michigan’s fine electronics – often accommodate the costs of partially retaliatory tariffs,” Daniels said. “Although the basic ingredients will continue to flow, American producers usually share customs tariff pain with their European buyers, as none of the sides can afford the full cost alone. This common burden highlights the extent to which the supply chain is really related to cars.”

The red states will feel outside the whiskey states of pain

In the world of manufacturing, the molybdenum, which is used in steel production, lubrication materials, dyes, and incentives in the petroleum industry, is a great export of Arizona to the European Union. In 2024, Arizona exported $ 304 million from Moldinum to the European Union (89 % of its exports to the world).

South Carolina has exported $ 223 million of ethylene polymer polymers to the European Union in 2024 (59 % of her exports to the world). This chemical is used in packaging, hot solubles, car components, and building materials, due to their durability, flexibility and adhesive properties.

Several other plastic resins topped the South Carolina and West Virginia menu, as companies exported $ 146 million of plastic resins to the European Union in 2024 (59 % of their exports to the world).

In some areas, the current trade imbalance in the United States will affect negotiation.

With a standard merchandise deficit about $ 236 billion in 2024, the United States relies on Europe for high -value manufactured goods such as vehicles, pharmaceutical preparations and industrial equipment. Daniels said that these sectors, where American negotiators enjoy raising the level of meaning through the targeted tariffs.

European auto manufacturers exported about $ 54 billion from vehicles to the United States in 2022, where American cars were exported to the European Union. It will put the targeted American tariff in this sector Great pressure on European manufacturers – Especially Germany, which includes the auto industry alone more than 30 % of the total European exports to the United States.

According to the customs data registered by Exiger, pharmaceutical It represents the largest export category in Europe to the United States, with about $ 92 billion annually.

Daniels said: “While targeting medicines through definitions may be a political sensitivity, it will directly affect European drug giants, which creates strong incentives for Brussels to negotiate,” Daniels said.