Will this asteroid hit the Earth? The risk level rises to the highest level ever.

Astronomers said on Tuesday that the appointed asteroid 2024 YR4 became the most likely rock that is likely to affect the planet. The object, which was first discovered in December, is 130 to 300 feet long and is expected to make a very close pass from the planet in 2032. 3.1 percent.

This goes beyond the threat of Abofis, a much larger asteroid discovered in 2004. Astronomers initially calculated his chances of hitting the Earth in 2029 2.7 percent. Apophis’s additional notes reduce the possibility of influence at any time during the next century to scratch. But the possibility, for a while, was annoying.

While 2024 YR4 is much smaller than Apophis, the small asteroid is still able to cause massive destruction. Many depend on the place where the atmosphere of the earth is in.

Although 2024 YR4 will not come close to reducing a country, it can be beating or demolishing a city with a direct blow. There is a very small opportunity. Most of the estimated path passes Empty oceanBut some Possible influence sites It approaches big cities such as Bogota, Lagos and Mumbai.

The kinetic energy of the asteroid is an agent of how its devastating effect. While asteroids move mostly at the same speed – about 38,000 miles per hour – the main variable is its mass.

With a few observations that depend on them, astronomers only have a set of estimates for a 2024 -year generator. “We do not know how it is dense or porous, and therefore its bloc, and therefore the energy that will launch it if it hit the surface of the earth or explodes in the air, is not certain,” he said. Mark BusloPhysical in the Los Alamos National Laboratory.

In all cases, though, “the greater, the more worse, the more,” Gareth CollinsFor the asteroid effect expert at the Imperial College in London. Small increases in size are translated into giant leaps in the destructive capabilities. the Thumb It is that if the asteroid’s diameter doubles, it has eight times more kinetic energy; The 300 -feet asteroid will cause much more damage than 130 feet.

The composition is also important. For example, the iron -made asteroid, for example, will drown in the air and hand over A more harmful punch To the planet. But 2024 YR4 is more statistically statistically to be a rocky asteroid, and is more likely to be retained in smaller pieces as it is heated while descending into the atmosphere.

But even an asteroid inflation – Airburst – can be very fierce.

If 2024 years are 4 rocky and on the smaller end of the estimates – 130 feet – Airburst’s possibilities are high, he said Catherine KumamotoThe head of the planetary defense program at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory.

“The main comparison point that we have for the effect of the rocky asteroid of this size is Tunguska,” said Dr. Kumamoto. the Tunguska event From 1908, a similar asteroid included in size to 2024 YR4 exploding over a few Siberia. A wave of an explosion of about 12 megadon was born, unlike a nuclear weapon, which destroyed a forest more than twice the size of New York City.

A 130 -foot rock explodes over the open ocean, or even the near beach, is unlikely to cause a large tsunami. Lorian WheelerExpert The asteroid threat evaluation project At NASA’s Ames Research Center in California.

Airburst will be over the city more pleasant. Windows will explode inward, Production of gun machine guns From the glassAnd the damage to the buildings will be widespread. Some injuries can threaten life.

The angle in which the asteroid enters into the air makes a difference. If it comes StraightIt may approach the Earth before the explosion and may cause further destruction. Entry Gradual angle It may lead to an explosion at a much higher altitude.

If it turns out that 2024 YR4 is 300 feet length, its effect “can cause severe damage”, Michael in AftosmExpert in the asteroid threat evaluation project.

“This asteroid is more likely to run,” said Dr. Komamoto, especially if we are lucky and the intense income angle. “The part can reach the surface of the earth relatively intact.”

Dr. Kumamoto said that the effect on the remote environment away from Earth will pose a much lower risk. However, spots next to the coastal line can cause a tsunami capable of flooding nearby lands.

If this larger version of 2024 YR4 hit a solid ground, it can Hole Perhaps two thirds of miles across.

“The asteroid will create a huge explosion,” said Dr. Buslo. The explosion wave will be amazingly strong. Multi -stamp buildings around the hole Empire and CrumpleBridges will be folded, and cars, trees and people will be thrown in all directions. Dr. Buslo also pointed out the possibility of “a warm plane of the asteroid’s vapor that descends to the surface and burns everything.”

He said that people close to the zero land are likely to die. People will continue to do tens of miles away from the wave of medium thunder explosion. “People inside the local area will be at risk of serious injury,” said Dr. Kumamoto.

Experts said that it is still unlikely to affect 2024 YR4 on Earth in 2032. But this range of effects of effect is exactly the reason that planetary defenders take this deadly asteroid seriously.