Trump’s book in Europe: Show the islands, but warned that you have a big stick

Last year, the European Union spent developing secret plans for what the bloc would do if President Trump had achieved its threats to impose a higher tariff on European goods and services.

Now, as these threats move from virtual to imminent, its plans are widely focused.

Putting the sectors and subjective politically – such as products made in the Republican countries – with the targeted tariff that aims to make the maximum pain. Don’t escalate to the Tit-For-Tat competition if it can be avoided. Go quickly and decisive, and perhaps using new tactics that can strike service providers such as large silicone technology companies.

It is an approximate playing book – he described widely by three diplomats who asked not to be identified because the plans were still being discussed – that Europe preferred not to use it. The first goal is to avoid the trade war by offering negotiations on the islands, including more European gas purchases, for which Mr. Trump was paying. European Union officials have warned that the trade war between the bloc and the United States will be a catastrophe that defeats itself, which would cost both sides and benefit geopolitical competitors such as China and Russia.

But Mr. Trump kept the continent in his hair the cross, saying this week that the bloc is “definitely” facing the customs tariff and “very soon”. If the recovery fails, Europe broadcasts it is ready to respond.

“We are ready.”

The three diplomats, who were informed of the wide ideas developed by ambassadors and other European Union countries, said the committee, the executive arm of the masses of the so -called business team, Trump. The bloc contains 27 member states, and plans that are shared widely will leak, eliminating its strategic advantage.

Two diplomats said that many of the guidelines are increasingly clear. Diplomats asked not to be identified to discuss sensitive matters politically.

The first idea is that the customs tariff is likely to be targeted, whether it means that some industries or products related to geography. In 2018, for example, Europe’s reaction to the tariff of steel and aluminum was by hitting the American whiskey with a great tariff, which harmed the Borbon industry in Kentucky, and therefore, an important circle of Mitch McConnell, my Republican in Kentucky who was then the leader of the Senate.

Two diplomats said that the second idea is to consist of strengthening the response, kicking or raising revenge only if some of the operators are met or dates are passed. One diplomat deliberately provides more influence, and avoids an immediate and painful commercial impact.

The third is that responses will not necessarily be a dream, according to the three diplomats. If Mr. Trump is ordering 20 percent of the collective tariff in Europe, this does not mean that Europe should respond by 20 percent of the collective tariff for the United States. The European Union still wants to adhere to the global trade rules that supported the World Trade Organization, which may indicate a more surgical approach.

One of the options on the table is the use of a “law control tool”, which is a relatively new legal framework that allows the mass to target large American service providers-such as large technology companies-with customs tariffs.

by force Since 2023The tool allows the European Union to use a “wide range of potential counter measures” such as higher customs duties or import limits when another country harm the European industry in an attempt to pressure the government and cause political or political change. the an idea It is to allow the bloc to respond to the pressing political pressure quickly and in a manner.

Financial times I mentioned at the beginning The committee can use the tool to strike service providers, including large silicone Valley technology companies, in response to American definitions. Two diplomats confirmed that the use of the tool was discussed, although it is far from the confirmed plan.

They said that moving forward with the tool may be very fundamental because Europe’s ultimate goal is not to cancel a comprehensive trade war.

Currently, it is impossible for Europe to consolidate the reaction plan. The simple reason: No one knows what Mr. Trump will do.

“They want to conclude a deal – I think they are still not sure of the real goals,” said Eurin Felk, the first manager of the European Center for the Research Group at the Atlantic Council.

Also, European Union leaders have sometimes struggled to get Washington on the phone. Marco Rubio, Foreign Minister, has She was invited To meet with foreign ministers, but he did not, although he received a call with the best diplomat of the bloc, Kaja Callas. Mrs. von der Lin has not met Mr. Trump since the opening in January.

Although Mr. Trump did not say how the definitions in Europe would look again and repeatedly he wanted to buy Europe more American cars And agricultural products, in addition to gas.

This has left Europe offering incentives in an attempt to ward off the trade war before it begins. The officials were clearly ready – even prepared – to buy more American fuel. Officials are already trying to find a way to diversify their energy sources, as the continent outperforms Russian gas.

“We are still getting a lot of liquefied natural gas from Russia, and why we do not replace it with American Lng”, Mrs. Von der Layen He said in the days After the election of Mr. Trump, in reference to LNG.

European officials also said they are likely to buy more US defense products while intensifying military spending at the level of the mass. The higher military expenses are, in part, in response to Mr. Trump, who insisted that European countries spend more on NATO.

When it comes to Greenland – an independent area of ​​Denmark, a member of the European Union, Mr. Trump He wants the attachment For its strategic importance – the Europeans emphasized that they are more open to investment on the island.

“I am fully agreed with the Americans that the high north, that the Arctic region has become more important when we talk about defense, security and deterrence,” said Metty Friedrixen, Prime Minister of Denmark, in Brussels this week. . “It is possible to find a way to ensure stronger feet in Greenland.”

Above all, European leaders are trying to remind America of the importance of the relationship between the European Union and the United States, whether economically or for global peace.

Not only the European Union, when it is treated as a bloc, America The most important trading a partner. It is also a major importer of American services, and as the officials did Repeated and repeatedly emphasize In recent days, European companies are hiring millions of Americans.

“There is a lot at stake for both sides,” said Mrs. von der Lin this week.

But she added that “we will always protect our interests – however, whenever there is a need.”

Anna Swanson The reports contributed.