Who will rule Gaza after the war? Four emerging competing models.

During nearly 16 months of the war in Gaza, politicians and analysts discussed competing proposals for post -war governance in the region, but there was no clear trend during the continued fighting.

Now, since the fragile ceasefire, and as Israel and enthusiasm for negotiations to extend the truce, have started four competing models for the future of Gaza in crystallization.

Hamas, weak but unseen, still control most of the lands and try to consolidate that authority. Under the conditions of the ceasefire, Israel aims to gradually withdraw from Gaza, but its forces still occupy major parts of it. The right -wing Israeli leaders want to expand their forces from control, even if it means restarting the war.

A group of foreign security contractors offers another model. Upon calling Israel, they run a checkpoint on a decisive street in northern Gaza, and to check vehicles for weapons. Some Israeli officials say that the activity can develop into international supervision of a much wider region, which includes Arab countries instead of the private sector contractors.

In the south, representatives of the Palestinian Authority began during the weekend to Employees crossing the border with EgyptWork with European security officials. The authority, which lost control of Gaza in Hamas in 2007, hopes that, at the appropriate time, these efforts across the entire lands.

At the present time, it is not clear which template that will appear as a dominant model. In a large part, the result will depend on President Trump, who is scheduled to discuss the future of Gaza on Tuesday in Washington with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from Israel. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia can tend to standards if it agrees for the first time to formulate official relations with Israel – in exchange for a certain governance structure in Gaza.

Here are the models and the possibility of their success.

Hamas rule

When the hostages were released in recent weeks, Hamas has made it clear that it remains the Palestinian power dominated on the ground. Hundreds of Hamas convincing fighters gathered at each issue, with a feeling that the group, although it was beaten for 16 months of war, is still responsible.

They also re -attached Hamas security officials to confirm what looked like the regime across the region, stopped and examined vehicles and trying to defuse the incapable munitions. Municipal officials also started changing the rubble.

For most Israelis, the presence of Hamas in the long run is unpalatable. Some may accept this if Hamas agrees to release all the remaining hostages detained in Gaza. Others, especially on the Israeli right, want to resume the war, even if it costs the lives of some of these prisoners, to force Hamas to go out.

If Hamas remains in power, it will be difficult for the group to rebuild Gaza without foreign support. Since many foreign donors will likely be of help unless Hamas is removed, the group can give up the power from a good mind to an alternative Palestinian leadership, rather than continuing to head arid lands that cannot be achieved. In Egyptian talks, Hamas envoys said that they can hand over administrative responsibilities to a committee of Palestinian technocrats, but the group is unlikely to resolve its armed wing even if it stops the operation of civil affairs in Gaza.

Israeli occupation

When the ceasefire began last month, Israel kept controlling a buffer zone along the Gaza border, which has several hundred meters wide. To end the war and secure the launch of all hostages in Gaza, Israel ultimately needs to evacuate this region. But this cannot be conceived of important members in the coalition of Mr. Netanyahu, which means that it may extend the profession of Israel, or even expand it, to avoid the collapse of his government.

However, it is more likely that Mr. Netanyahu will need to support the Trump administration, which indicated that he wants to see an extended ceasefire to allow the release of each hostage. Return to war also would be affected by any short-term opportunity for an agreement between Israel and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia-a major international achievement that Mr. Netanyahu has long reassured him.

International power

When the Israeli forces withdrew last week from most of the Netzarim corridor, a strategic area linking the northern and southern Gaza, allowed a regiment of foreign security contractors to fill the void. Under the leadership of Egyptian security guards, the contractors are examining the north of weapons, hoping to slow the Hamas efforts to reinforce its armed men in northern Gaza. Two American companies Participate in this processBut it is not clear the role they play on the ground.

At the present time, this process is a phrase Mediation between Israel and Hamas. But some Israeli officials say that they can be expanded – in terms of geography and responsibility – to include administrative roles in a wider region, publicly supported and financially by the leading Arab countries such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

It is unlikely to search for an official role without the blessing of the Palestinian Authority.

The authority, which Hamas forced from Gaza in 2007, He still runs part of the West Bank It is considered the only serious Palestinian alternative to Hamas. But Israeli leaders see the authority as corrupt and incompetent and rejected the idea of ​​giving it a major role in Gaza, at least at the present time. The Israeli right also opposes the empowerment of power, fearing that it will appear as a reliable country.

Palestinian Authority

However, the representatives of the Authority began to quietly work in another part of Gaza during the weekend, indicating that parts of the Israeli leadership may be in practice more flexible in the participation of power.

Israel allowed officials from both the European Union and the Palestinian Authority to restart the operations at the Rafah crossing – a checkpoint on the border between Gaza and Egypt. The crossing was closed because Israel invaded the Rafah area last May.

Publicly, the Israeli government reduced the participation of the authority at the checkpoint, partly to avoid the anger of the members of the coalition of Mr. Netanyahu.

But the operations in his Rafah have fueled speculation that Mr. Netanyahu, under the pressure of Mr. Trump and Arab leaders in the Gulf, may tolerate a broader role of power, perhaps in partnership with foreign peacekeepers or contractors.