With its American alliance under pressure, can Canada join the European Union?

Relations between Canada and the United States are under serious pressure – this provides some commentators an unlikely solution – albeit impossible -.

What if Canada joined the European Union?

Even before US President Donald Trump threatens the Canadians with “economic power” if they do not want Economicand Proposal From the country to switch the difference.

As it turned out, “Books,” both Europe and Canada may be in the market for the promotion alliances. “

Pigenal column in early January followed a small wave of online excitement: a former spokesman for the Canadian embassy in Paris SupportAs he did One president of the pro -European Union British Movement. until Former German Foreign Minister It seems to jump on board.

“Joke, screaming, real proposal? It is difficult to know,” Read one column In Montreal Daily La Press. “(But) with an American president is now completely hostile to Canada, the rapprochement with Europe will be out of no meaning.”

But can it really happen?

Is joining the European Union possible?

Article 49 The European Union treaty opens membership, “Any European country that respects and is committed to promoting human dignity, freedom, democracy, equality, the rule of law and respect for human rights, including the rights of persons belonging to minorities.”

What he does not do is the European definition.

“What constitutes a European country leaves to make political decisions,” said Dimitrius Argroolis, a researcher at the Institute of European Studies at Lieber de Brukiles University in Belgium.

A country outside Europe tried to join once before. In 1987, Morocco He was rejected on the basis that it was not a “European country”.

But Canada may be different. In his column, Pignal depends on the idea that the Canadians are “Europeans and two” Europeans “because of their” common values ​​” – something Both governments were repeatedly highlighted.

They say that Canadians are generally supporting control of weapons, opposing the death penalty and opposing a strong well -being that regulates the free market – like Europeans.

Canadian political and legal institutions are also designed on European precedents, and More than half of the Canadians know As European in origin.

There can also be some privileges for both sides to a closer union. As Pigenal also suggested, Canada can provide access to the vast reserves of strategic resources more rare on the continent, such as rare ground minerals and fossil fuel.

Meanwhile, Canada may benefit from reaching the large labor market and skills in Europe – and reduce its dependence on the United States and its volatile policies.

“Ottawa should prepare for a world where Washington is less reliable,” said Tuna Lavrilashevili, a visitor colleague at the Martins Center, a European Union Thinking Center in Brussels. “Enhancing communication with Europe … not only strategic, but necessary.”

Can it really happen?

So it is legally possible, and even has some aspects – but is it possible that it is already?

Do not delegate.

“This will not happen,” said Stephen Blackans, a senior colleague of the European Studies Center in Brussels.

The European Union is already it has Long waiting list: 10 candidates, including some, such as Bosnia-Hergovina, who were waiting for decades.

“Think about the optics,” said Maria Garcia, the supreme lecture in Politics at Bath University in England. “If you have got very late nominations … with these eastern countries that are already in Europe, can you really open them to countries outside?”

A recent survey study From the Martins Center, it was found that only 38 percent of the European Union’s population wanted more members – and more than 80 percent said they should come from inside Europe.

While Europe adds more members, it becomes also difficult to find an agreement between them to those to be allowed. These decisions – along with policies on sensitive topics such as security and immigration – are made unanimously.

“They are having difficulty maintaining it as it is,” said Robin Zoyoti, Director of the Center for Excellence at the European Union of Jean -Monnet University at the University of Delosi at Halifax. “So imagine more expansion – alongside those who already line up – I don’t see enough energy to achieve this goal, or even to start the process.”

More cooperation?

Most likely from the full membership of Canada, Zaytti said, “an advanced form of cooperation.”

According to Michael Emerson, a former European Union ambassador to Russia at the Center for European Policy Studies in Brussels, it can take the form of “deepening the maximum relationship of relationship in all accounts: political, economic, cultural and security.”

Or the European Union can seek to create completely new alliances.

“One can imagine … a loose, multilateral group of similar thinking, without the United States,” Emerson wrote in an email. “Then all democratic Europe, in addition to the rest of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, may develop a collective diplomatic position, stressing our” model “for the enlightened West.”

The European Union has already has some ability to create this type of relationship. that it The concept of “European neighborhood” It was allowed to enter into the partnerships of resource participation with Armenia and Tunisia that exceed the typical trade agreements.

Some states, like Norway, are members of the European Economic Zone, a free trade bloc, without being members of the European Union. Others are full but not part of the Schengen Agreement, which allows travel without a visa, or the euro area, which shares the currency and the central bank.

Canada Participates already in Horizon EuropEThe European Union’s research grant program worth more than $ 140 billion, along with non -European countries such as New Zealand.

“It refers to a new chapter in our relationship with the European Union,” said Francois Philip, the Minister of Science in Canada, when the agreement was signed last year.

Meanwhile, European Union President Ursula von der Layen has not been unloaded. She said that Canada is “the only country in the Western hemisphere with all the raw materials required for lithium batteries,” and it is a major strategic resource with Europe turning into green technology. “So I would like to say this is an ideal match.”

In this way, at least, European leaders appear open to expand the definition of Europe – which creates “European onions, instead of the European Union,” says Blockmans.

“If there is any shift in the thinking of the European Union, it is likely that this is towards deepening strategic partnerships (these) instead of re -imagining the European Union as an unlimited alliance geographically.”

You do not choose your friends

Of course, “it is still very difficult for Canada … separating themselves from America,” said Garcia.

Its largest commercial partner cannot be replaced overnight – and the defense of Canadian (or European) lands will not be easy without American support.

“Europe is not a complete alternative to the United States,” said Lavrillvili.

This is if the Canadians want an alternative.

The Canadian provinces are rarely agreed on the priorities of the European Union such as climate or agricultural policy – with some It looks hesitant in Trump’s challenge In a commercial dispute.

He said that Canadian companies, at the same time “have always relied on this (American) ready -made communication for profitability, and rarely took alternative partners seriously.”

There is also a risk that any move to deepen relations with Europe may raise more American aggression.

“It would increase their feeling that the European Union is an opponent and an opponent, not an ally,” said Arriolis. “Just imagine these people who are obsessed with border monitoring to realize that they may share the borders with the European Union.”

There is another problem as well. If Canada is looking forward to Europe to escape politics similar to Trump, the wrong tree may bark.

Later this month, there will be elections in Germany, a major country in the European Union, where the extreme right, Eleon inverted musk An alternative to Germany (AFD) was Move in polls.

The Germans only join voters in Italyand Austriaand Belgiumand Czech Republicand Hungaryand Finlandand Polandand Norwayand Holland and FranceThose who have granted public support to politicians, such as Trump or major government authority positions in the past few years.

“Canada can no longer take its close relations with Europe.

Everyone may have that Canadians and Europe may have some common values ​​- but in this new political era, Europe and Trump have exchanged more values.