The CIA believes Covid-19 most likely originated from a laboratory but has low confidence in its detection

The US Central Intelligence Agency now believes the virus responsible for the Covid-19 pandemic most likely originated from a laboratory, according to an assessment released on Saturday that points to China even as it acknowledges that the spy agency has “low confidence” on its own end.

The finding is not the result of any new intelligence, and the report was completed at the request of the Biden administration and former CIA Director William Burns. He was declassified and released Saturday on the orders of President Donald Trump’s pick to lead the agency, John Ratcliffe, who was sworn in Thursday as director.

A rigorous finding indicates that the agency believes that the totality of the evidence makes laboratory origin more likely than natural origin. But the agency’s assessment assigns a low confidence level to that conclusion, suggesting that the evidence is incomplete, inconclusive or contradictory.

Previous reports on the origins of Covid-19 have been divided over whether the coronavirus emerged from a Chinese laboratory, perhaps accidentally, or whether it arises naturally. The new assessment is unlikely to settle the debate. In fact, intelligence officials say it may never be solved, due to a lack of cooperation from Chinese authorities.

The agency wrote in a statement about its new assessment.

Instead of new evidence, the conclusion was based on new analyzes of intelligence about the spread of the virus, its scientific characteristics, and the work and conditions of virology laboratories in China.

US lawmakers have pressured US spy agencies for more information about the origins of the virus, leading to lockdowns, economic disruption and millions of deaths. It’s a question with major domestic and geopolitical implications as the world continues to grapple with the legacy of the pandemic.

“Make China pay,” says the Republican senator.

Republican Sen. Tom Cotton of Arkansas, chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, said Saturday that he was “pleased the CIA in the final days of the Biden administration that the lab leak theory is the most plausible explanation” and praised Ratcliffe for his rating.

“Now, the most important thing is to make China pay for releasing plague into the world,” Cotton said in a statement.

Chinese authorities have dismissed speculation about the origins of Covid as unhelpful and politically motivated. On Saturday, a spokesperson for the US-China Embassy said the CIA report had no credibility.

“Stay away from conspiracy theories,” says Chinese official.

“We strongly oppose the politicization and stigmatization of the source of the virus,” embassy spokesman Liu Pingyu said in an emailed statement to The Associated Press, and once again called on everyone to respect science and stay away from conspiracy theories.

While the origin of the virus remains unknown, scientists believe the most likely hypothesis is that it was distributed in bats, like many coronaviruses, before infecting another species, most likely raccoon dogs, bobcats, or bamboo rats. In turn, the infection spread to humans handling those animals or slaughtering them at a market in Wuhan, where the first human cases appeared in late November 2019.

However, some official investigations have raised the question of whether the virus escaped from a laboratory in Wuhan. Two years ago, a Department of Energy report concluded that a laboratory leak was the most likely origin, although that report expressed low confidence in that finding.

Christopher Wray, the FBI’s technical director that same year, said his agency believed the virus “most likely” spread after escaping from the laboratory.

Ratcliffe, who served as director of national intelligence during Trump’s first term, said he favored a lab leak scenario as well.

“The lab leak is the only theory supported by science, intelligence and common sense,” Ratcliffe said in 2023.

The CIA said it would continue to evaluate any new information that could change its assessment.