Kazuo UEDA ruler responds to questions during the conservatives talk about Japanese inflation and monetary policy at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Group Group 2024 meeting in Washington, United States, October 23, 2024.
Kaylee Greenle Beal | Reuters
The Bank of Japan raised prices by 25 basis points on Friday to 0.5 %, which raised the policy price to the highest level since 2008, as it seeks to normalize its monetary policy amid signs of continuous inflation and high wages.
This step comes in line with expectations from the CNBC survey, where The vast majority of economists predicted height.
Bog In its statement He revealed that the decision was a division of 8-1, with the opposition of a member of the Board of Directors Toyoaki Nakamura to raise prices.
Nakamura said that the central bank should play policy only after confirming the high force in gaining companies from the reports that will come out through the upcoming monetary policy meeting.
After the decision, Japanese yen 0.3 % trade is strengthened at 155.61 against the dollar, while the country’s standard Nikki 225 The stock index rose 0.33 %.
The return on Japanese government bonds increased for 10 years 1.7 basis points to 1.222 %.
Before the meeting, senior BOJ officials, including the ruler Kazuo Ueda and the Ryozo Himino, referred to the central bank’s willingness to raise prices.
Focus wages
Hemino said in a speech to business leaders on January 14, that BOJ will closely monitor the “Shunto” wage negotiations, and hope to see “strong wages” in the fiscal year 2025.
In his statement on Friday, the Central Bank indicated that “there were many opinions expressed by companies that will continue to raise wages steadily in the annual wage negotiations to work management in the spring, after increasing strong wages last year” because of the improvement of companies profits And the narrow labor market.
The President of the Japanese Syndicate Union – Ringo – said that the annual wage increases this year should exceed 5.1 % guaranteed last year because the real wages continue to decline, Reuters mentioned.
President Tomoko Yoshino said Ringo was officially looking for a wage increase by at least 5 % in the “Shunto” wage negotiations for this year, and aims to increase at least 6 % for smaller companies to narrow the income gap with workers in major companies.
BoJ noted that as wages continued, the basic inflation was gradually increasing about 2 %.
CPI numbers were released earlier on Friday The main inflation that reached the highest level since January 2023 showed 3.6 %, on an annual basis, in December. The basic inflation increased to a 3 -month altitude by 3 %.
BOJ expects the main address enlargement rate It is likely that it is about 2.5 % Its financial year ending in March 2026, due to the high import prices resulting from the low value of the yen.
More high height?
In a memorandum on January 21, Vincent Chung, Director of the Joint Wallet for the Diverse Income Bond Strategy in T “
He added that the policy rate may exceed 1 %, because this is closer to the minimum level than the neutral rate in BOJ.
In September, Board Board Board Naoki Tamura He said the neutral average “It will be at least 1 percent,” although BOJ has no formal expectations for the neutral rate.
Chong noted that although Japanese officials indicated that the fluctuation of the yen was great, any major currency interference last year appears unlikely.
Last July, yen It has reached the weakest level against the dollar since 1986Up to 161.96. Japanese authorities He later confirmed that they spent 5.53 trillion yenOr $ 36.8 billion, to support the yen in July.
Japan Server more than 15.32 trillion yen (97.06 billion dollars) to support currency over 2024.
Chong said that inflation in the United States may increase later in this quarter, along with continuous economic growth, and this could exercise upward pressure on the returns, which may enhance the dollar – weakening the yen.
“Investors should also consider that with the transformations of the potential major policy in trade and federal reserve, which is close to standing, the dual -growth risk is likely to be larger this year of 2024. 2025,” he said.
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