As Trump moves to withdraw from global commitments, China is waiting on guard

As US President Donald Trump announces plans to withdraw from various international organizations and agreements, China is positioning itself as a global leader and taking advantage of the opportunity to fill the void left by the United States on the world stage, analysts say.

On his first day in office after his inauguration on Monday, Trump signed executive orders that began the process of withdrawing from the World Health Organization and the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change, as he did in his first term.

The Republican president’s moves raise questions about the future of global public health responses and climate goals, and leave a leadership vacuum that China could try to fill.

“This creates potential for China to further enhance its influence in the world’s multilateral institutions and help govern the world,” said Gregory Chen, an associate professor of political economy at York University in Toronto.

In fact, China appears to be sending these signals already.

China letters

In what could be seen as a strategically timed meeting, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke via video just hours after Trump’s inauguration, underscoring their ongoing alliance.

“I am willing to work with you to continue to guide China-Russia relations to a new level in 2025, to respond to external doubts,” Xi reportedly told Putin.

The Chinese leader said he wanted to “uphold international justice and fairness.”

Meanwhile, Chinese officials echoed that message on Tuesday at the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland, praising the country’s commitment to combating climate change.

“China has always been a strong supporter of true multilateralism,” Vice Premier Deng Xuexiang said, adding that the country “firmly upholds the international order… and firmly maintains the international order based on international law.”

Regarding “peace and security,” Deng said, “China has the best record among the world’s major powers.”

Also on Tuesday, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiaqun, at a press conference in Beijing, reiterated China’s concern about the US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement.

“Climate change represents a common challenge facing all of humanity,” he said. “China’s determination and actions to effectively respond to climate change are consistent.”

During Trump’s first term, the United States also withdrew from multiple international agreements, including… Paris Agreement regarding climate change, Trans-Pacific Partnership and United Nations Human Rights Council.

It seems to be continuing on the same path.

When Trump won the presidential election over Kamala Harris, the Democratic vice president, in November, Jia Wang, a senior fellow and senior advisor at the China Institute at the University of Alberta in Edmonton, said, China could benefit, he told CBC News On the situation.

“China can take this opportunity to make more friends or at least reduce competitors and enemies,” she said.

Development cost

As the United States turns inward, and as the new president touts the beginning of America’s “golden age” and the end of its “decline,” China is asserting itself.

“Unintentionally, the Trump administration may be weakening America’s standing in the world relative to China,” York University’s Chen said.

At least on the climatic level, China has been positioning itself as a leader in the environmental field For years, it has undertaken initiatives aimed at achieving its goal of carbon neutrality by 2060 – including investing in renewable energy and leading the world in… Electric vehicles And batteries. This is despite being still The world’s largest source of greenhouse gasesresponsible for a third of global emissions.

Yongjing Zhang, associate professor of economics and politics at the University of Ottawa, said that this positioning, no matter how strategic, comes out of necessity.

“China really cares about climate change,” Zhang said, adding that the country was now suffering the “cost” of its rapid development. “No matter what happens with other countries, China (will deal with it).”

Simply put, she has no choice.

Global health security

On Tuesday, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo also expressed strong support for the WHO following Trump’s announcement, saying that China “will, as always, support the WHO in fulfilling its duty, and deepening international cooperation in the field of public health.”

Trump accused the institution, a United Nations agency, of bias toward China and criticized its handling of the Covid-19 pandemic, as he did during his first term in power, when he also moved to oust American Joe Biden, Trump’s successor. As president after his first term, he later reversed the decision.

However, China’s future role in the health field is more unclear, despite its messages. The United States to a large extent The agency’s largest financial supporter, This represents about 18 percent of its total financing. The most recent WHO budget for 2024-2025 was US$6.8 billion.

It is currently unclear how this financial void will be filled, with experts warning that the move could weaken global public health security – and could weaken the world’s defenses against future pandemics and infectious diseases.

Being allies means nothing now.

What has emerged in the early days of Trump’s presidency suggests that US allies are increasingly concerned about what a more confident Trump might mean in his second term, given his unpredictability.

“You have to throw the terms of friendship and allies out the window,” said Lynette Ong, distinguished professor of Chinese politics at the University of Toronto. “It means nothing now.”

Ong said that although China can assert itself very well, she would like to see more evidence that the country is putting its words into action.

But York University’s Chen said that US isolationism would ultimately mean that other countries would face a decision in the alliance system.

“It is a choice between joining America moving forward or a set of multipolar options,” he said.

These options could include, Chen said BRICS countriesOf which China and Russia are part.

“If you are in the West, you might see this as a threat to the so-called rules-based international order,” he said. “But if you were in the rest of the world, you might say that some of these changes might actually be improvements.”

As Trump He threatens to raise customs duties on countries Such as China, Canada, Mexico and China Reducing customs duties on hundreds of goods This coming month to the country. Regardless of the motive, Chen suggests that this may be just one of the reasons why other countries may strengthen their relations with the country while the United States distances itself.