How did the October 7 attacks change the Middle East?

When Hamas militants led a deadly cross-border raid on October 7, 2023, they sparked a war with Israel that devastated Gaza. It also unleashed shock waves that reshaped the Middle East in unexpected ways.

Strong alliances were turned upside down. Well-established “red lines” have been crossed. A decades-long dictatorship in the heart of the region has been eliminated.

Fifteen months after the October attacks, and with a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas set to begin on Sunday, here’s a look at how the region has radically transformed.

Israel

Israel has reasserted its military dominance, but may face heavy diplomatic and domestic costs.

The country’s leaders treated the Hamas-led attacks as an existential threat, and were determined to defeat Hamas and weaken its main backer, Iran. Not only did Israel succeed in weakening Hamas in Gaza, but it also succeeded in eliminating the Shiite Hezbollah group in Lebanon and dealt a strong blow to Iran’s network of allies in the Middle East.

At home, and in the sphere of world public opinion, Israel’s successes were more ambiguous. Although its attack on Gaza severely weakened Hamas, it did not destroy it, as the government pledged to do.

Israel’s economy has been damaged by the war, and the country’s polarized politics – briefly overlooked when the war began – appear to have returned to their divided state. The country’s international standing is in tatters, threatening its diplomatic goals, such as normalizing relations with Saudi Arabia.

These dynamics may change again with the inauguration on Monday of President-elect Donald Trump, who in his first term pushed for the normalization of relations between Arab countries and Israel and may seek to revive those efforts.

In the longer term, it is difficult to predict the threats that Israel may face from a generation of Lebanese and Palestinian youth who have been psychologically traumatized by the death and destruction caused by the Israeli bombing on their families and homes.

agitation

Hamas and its leader at the time of the October 7 attacks, Yahya Sinwar, wanted these attacks to ignite a broader regional war between Israel and Hamas’ allies. But the group failed to anticipate how the conflict might end.

For Palestinian civilians, the future looks bleaker than ever.

The Israeli bombing and invasion have forced almost all of Gaza’s residents from their homes and killed more than 45,000 people, according to Gaza health authorities, who do not distinguish between civilians and combatants. Israel turned vast areas of the Strip into rubble.

Israel has killed Mr. Sinwar and the rest of Hamas’ senior military and political leaders, and the group’s popularity among Gazans has faded, although American officials appreciation Hamas has recruited a number of fighters approximately equal to the number it lost during 15 months of fighting.

However, its remaining leaders may claim that their survival constitutes a victory for them.

Israel insists that Hamas cannot rule the Strip after the war, but has resisted calls for a plan for Gaza after the war. Gulf states such as Saudi Arabia now say they will not normalize relations with Israel unless they commit to the path of establishing a Palestinian state.

Lebanon

The fractured Hezbollah, once the crown jewel of Iran’s so-called resistance axis, has loosened its grip on Lebanon. But the Israeli invasion and bombing left Lebanon facing billions of dollars in reconstruction costs amid an economic crisis that preceded the war.

Hezbollah, previously the dominant political and military force in Lebanon, has suffered a stark reversal in its fortunes since the 2023 attacks. Israel has killed most of its top leaders, including Hassan Nasrallah. Its sponsor, Iran, has been weakened. Its supply lines through Syria are also at risk. More broadly, the group’s fundamental promise to Lebanon – that it alone can protect the country from Israel – has been abrogated.

Years of political stalemate, largely blamed on the armed group, eased enough this month to enable Lebanon’s parliament to elect a new president and appoint a prime minister backed by the United States and Saudi Arabia.

Despite the strikes, Hezbollah can still recruit thousands of fighters and has the support of Lebanon’s large Shiite community. It may find a way to rebuild within Lebanon’s divided political system.

Syria

The overthrow of Bashar al-Assad last month – one of the most dramatic and unexpected consequences of October 7 – dismantled a brutal authoritarian regime. But the inevitable turmoil that followed created the conditions for new power struggles.

For nearly 13 years, Assad has largely contained the rebellion against his family’s five-decade hold on power — with the help of Russia, Hezbollah and Iran.

But with Moscow focused on its war in Ukraine, and Iran and Hezbollah suffering from Israeli attacks, the rebels led by Turkish-backed Islamists in Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham sensed an opportunity. They surged across Syria and overthrew the government within days.

With Iran and Russia in decline, Türkiye is now in a prime position to play a pivotal role in Syria. Moscow hopes to preserve some of its naval and air bases, but the fate of its negotiations with Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham is uncertain.

Meanwhile, the United States has maintained a small military presence in Syria to fight the Islamic State terrorist group, and is allied with Kurdish-led forces that Türkiye views as an enemy. Israel seized Syrian territory near the Golan Heights as a buffer zone, and launched large-scale air strikes on what it says are Syrian military targets and weapons.

Syria’s neighbors and European countries – which host millions of Syrian refugees – are watching closely to see whether the country can stabilize or descend again into violent chaos.

Iran

Iran’s powerful network of regional alliances has collapsed, leaving the country vulnerable — and potentially motivated to build a nuclear weapon.

Iran, long seen as one of the most influential powers in the Middle East, has appeared severely weakened after the reorganization it has witnessed over the past 15 months. It has effectively lost much of its once powerful “axis of resistance,” the network of allies it used to counter US and Israeli influence.

Its closest partner, Hezbollah, is now too weak to pose a serious threat to Israel. With Assad’s ouster from Syria, Iran lost influence over the country that provided a crucial supply line for weapons and militants.

Previous red lines that prevented the region from all-out war have been erased: since Israel Assassination of the political leader of Hamas Ismail Haniyeh, while a guest in Tehran, Iran and Israel launched direct air strikes against each other.

It is unclear where exactly that will leave Tehran. A weak Iranian government that feels increasingly vulnerable may be forced to weaponize its decades-old nuclear program. US officials have warned that Iran may need only a few weeks to enrich uranium to levels that can be used to make a nuclear bomb.