China’s GDP in the fourth quarter grew by 5.4%, beating market expectations

China’s economy expanded by 5% year-on-year in 2024, with a rebound in the final quarter of the year, as a wave of stimulus measures kicked in and helped meet Beijing’s growth target.

GDP in the fourth quarter exceeded expectations with 5.4% growth, according to China’s National Bureau of Statistics. Economists polled by Reuters expected growth of 5% in the fourth quarter.

This was faster growth compared to 4.6% in the third quarter, 4.7% in the second quarter, and 5.3% in the first quarter.

The economic expansion for the full year was lower Compared to a growth of 5.4% in 2023 Post-pandemic. As part of Annual review of preliminary figuresThe Census Bureau in late December revised 2023 GDP growth to 7.4%, according to CNBC’s calculations of official data.

However, the Census Bureau warned: “We must recognize that negative impacts from the external environment are increasing, and that domestic demands are insufficient.” He called for the implementation of “more proactive and effective macro policies.”

In December, retail sales jumped 3.7% from a year earlier, beating Reuters’ expectations of 3.5%. Industrial production expanded by 6.2% from the previous year, compared to expectations of 5.4%, which confirms the imbalance in China between domestic production and weak demand.

Fixed asset investments for the full year rose 3.2% in 2024, compared to the expected 3.3% increase in a Reuters poll, with real estate investment further declining to a 10.6% decline, compared to the period from January to November.

The urban unemployment rate rose to 5.1% in December from 5.0% the previous month.

The disposable income of urban residents grew by 4.4%, while the disposable income of rural residents increased by 6.3% in 2024.

The country’s population decreased by 1.39 million in 2023, reaching 1.408 billion.

China is striving to promote economic growth and has done so Several measures have been taken This is the end.

Since late September, the Chinese authorities have called for an end to the decline in real estate. Reducing interest rates A. announced A five-year financial package worth 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) to alleviate the local government financing crisis. Beijing has also expanded a program for consumers to trade in used cars and home appliances and buy new cars at a discount.

Senior leaders pledged “proactive” fiscal measures and a “moderately loose” monetary policy stance for the current year.

Some analysts expect stimulus It could take effect this year, but it will take longer to see a significant impact.

The real estate slump and uncertainty about future income have weighed on consumer spending and business confidence, adding to deflation fears.

China’s consumer inflation rate remained barely above zero, while wholesale prices fell for the 27th straight month in December. Official data showed last week.

The government is expected to unveil official 2025 growth targets and additional stimulus measures at annual parliamentary meetings in March.

Economists expect that China will retain it GDP growth target for 2025 at around 5%if not a little less.

Friday’s data comes just days before Donald Trump is inaugurated as US president on January 20. Trump said that shortly after taking office, Plan to charge additional customs fees Not less than 10% on Chinese goods. He has too Some hawks eyed China To key ministerial positions.

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