In light of the crisis that South Korea is going through, eight judges will decide the president’s fate

For six weeks, South Korea has been going through its worst political crisis in decades, casting doubt on the resilience of the country’s democracy. On Tuesday, the biggest step towards a solution was taken, when the Constitutional Court began discussing whether to remove or restore the country’s ousted president to office.

The court’s eight judges will be the final arbiters on the fate of President Yoon Suk-yul, who was… isolation He was suspended from his position on December 14 by the National Assembly for his short-term proclamation Martial law 11 days ago.

The risks are high. Rival groups of citizens have rallied for weeks, some in front of the court, either to demand Mr. Yoon’s ouster or to demand his return to office. Hardliners on both sides warned of a “civil war” if the court did not rule in their favor.

If Mr. Yoon is removed, it would be another crushing blow to the country’s conservative camp: He would be the third consecutive conservative president to be ousted, imprisoned, or both before or after the end of his term.

If the deeply unpopular leader is allowed to return to office, it could set a precedent for future leaders to use martial law as a political tool, said Ha Sang-eung, a political science professor at Sogang University in Seoul.

“I wonder what other democracies around the world think about this happening in South Korea,” Mr. Ha said.

Mr. Yoon has vowed to prevail in the Constitutional Court. But his lawyers said he would not attend the first hearing on Tuesday, citing concerns that criminal investigators might try to arrest him for questioning on rebellion charges if he left. His fortified residence In the center of Seoul. It is expected that his absence will lead to the shortening of Tuesday’s session. But the court can proceed with its deliberations from the second session scheduled for Thursday – with or without him.

His lawyer, Yoon Kap-keun, said: “President Yoon will defend himself in court whenever necessary.”

Martial law for Mr. Yoon It only lasted six hours After it was rejected by representatives in the opposition-led National Assembly. But his attempt to put South Korea under military rule for the first time in four decades has unleashed a long period of political uncertainty in a key ally of the United States, which has expressed concern about Mr. Yoon’s move.

While Mr. Yoon faces a parallel criminal investigation for rebellion, the focus on dissolving his presidency now turns to the Constitutional Court: its decision could help dispel some uncertainty, or it could increase unrest if its decision sparks public anger. .

As the country’s political polarization has deepened in recent years, the court has dealt with an increasing number of cases that only it can decide: officials, prosecutors and judges dismissed by the National Assembly. Mr. Yoon is the third South Korean president to be impeached in the past two decades.

In 2004, President Roh Moo-hyun was impeached by the National Assembly on charges of violating the election law, but he was… Reinstated by courtwhich ruled that his crime was not serious enough. In 2017, the court The overthrow of Park Geun-hyeanother president who was impeached, on charges of corruption and abuse of power.

“When the country Drifting without a skipper “Or without knowing who the captain is, the Constitutional Court is putting it back on track,” said Jung Ji-ung, a lawyer and head of the bar association in Gyeonggi, the populous province surrounding Seoul.

South Korea has a separate supreme court, but established the Constitutional Court in 1987 to be the final interpreter of its constitution. The court is located in Seoul’s quiet old town, and often attracts rival activists carrying placards and megaphones when it approaches landmark rulings.

In 2005, it abolished the centuries-old practice of allowing children to adopt only their father’s family name. In 2009, she voted against a ban on nightly protest marches, allowing citizens to gather after work hours to air their grievances, as they have done in recent months for and against Mr. Yoon. In 2015, the court Adultery is not a crime. In 2019, hit down A 66-year-old law makes abortion a crime punishable by up to two years in prison.

As the number of impeachment cases grows, the court becomes more politically important and so do its nine justices, who each serve six-year terms. Three are chosen by the President, three by the Chief Justice and three by the political parties.

The current court includes eight judges, and one seat is vacant. Two were chosen by Mr. Yoon and his party; three by former and current chief justices of the Supreme Court; Three are from Mr. Yoon’s predecessor, Moon Jae-in, and his Democratic Party, the current opposition.

Mr. Yoon could be removed from office if six or more justices agree, but he may not be able to rely on partisanship on the court to save him. In the past, justices did not always vote based on who supported their appointments: the court ruled unanimously to remove Ms. Park, although some were appointed by her or her party.

The court’s ruling will depend on the seriousness of any constitutional and legal crimes committed by Mr. Yoon, said Bang Seung-jo, a professor at Hanyang University School of Law in Seoul. He said it would also consider whether a decision not to expel him would pose greater harm to the constitutional order and the national interest than his removal, such as increasing political instability.

Prosecutors at the court are appointed by the National Assembly and say Mr. Yoon committed rebellion when he sent armed forces into the Assembly, ordering them to seize Parliament and detain his political enemies. Since taking office in 2022, Mr. Yoon has been locked in a confrontation with the National Assembly, which he described as a “den of criminals” when justifying the martial law decree.

Prosecutors say Mr. Yoon also violated the Constitution by banning all political activity and placing the media under military control.

Prosecutors have already arrested a former defense minister and several military generals on charges of helping Mr. Yoon commit the mutiny. Prosecutors said Mr. Yoon ordered the generals to break down the doors of the National Assembly, “shoot if necessary,” and “retract” lawmakers.

Mr. Yoon Kap Keun, the president’s lawyer, described those testimonies as “corrupt.”

But legal analysts, including Noh Hee-bum, a former research judge at the Constitutional Court, expect the court to oust Mr. Yoon as early as February, in order to help ease political uncertainty in the country and because there is sufficient evidence against him.

“It’s a matter of time,” Mr. Noah said.