Hours after Donald Trump Beijing threatened to impose “huge” tariffs. And last Friday on controls on its exports of rare earth elements, he appeared to translate his words into action by imposing a 100 percent tax on imports from China.
But the US President’s move indicates a more calibrated approach than some expected.
Instead of imposing the tariffs immediately, they will take effect on November 1, two days after the scheduled meeting with… President Xi Jinping. This indicates that Trump is making room for a solution even though he said there is no point in meeting Xi at the APEC forum in South Korea.
Asked what would happen if China lifted export controls, Trump said: “We’ll have to see what happens. That’s why I did it on November 1.”
One former US official described his response as a “huge taco,” using the abbreviation for “Trump always walks out” — a phrase that became popular after backing down in the face of Chinese pressure.
He added: “Xi will see it for what it is: a clear sign of weakness, a lack of resolve, if not despair.”
The sweeping export controls shocked the White House, in part because they came three weeks before Trump was expected to hold his first meeting with Xi since returning to the White House.
Early Friday, Trump said he might cancel the meeting. He later said: “I didn’t cancel, but I don’t know that we’ll get it. But I’ll be there regardless, so I suppose we might get it.”
New Chinese controls on foreign companies require this Export products With rare earths from China to obtain approval from Beijing. Along with Trump’s response, they obliterated the trade ceasefire between the powers.
“Two huge heavyweights in the ring,” a second former American official said, referring to the 1975 boxing match in the Philippines between Muhammad Ali and Joe Frazier. “I haven’t had this much fun since the Manila thrill.”
In his first comments on the issue, Trump criticized China, describing the controls as “very aggressive.” He said that, in addition to tariffs, several other countermeasures were “under serious consideration.”
His reaction sparked hope among some China hawks in his administration, who were frustrated that he blocked them from taking tough security measures to avoid jeopardizing trade talks and the summit.
One US official said that “Christmas came early” for hawks in China.
These hawks hope China has so enraged Trump that he will allow them to begin taking aggressive action — just as he gave the green light for tough security measures against Beijing in 2020 after blaming China for Covid-19 when his handling of the pandemic came under criticism.
“The administration’s China hawks must feel right, as they have watched with dismay as Trump has taken a more conciliatory approach toward China in recent months,” said Wendy Cutler, vice president of the Asia Society Policy Institute.
People familiar with the situation said the United States is preparing for a range of potential retaliatory measures, including sanctions on Chinese companies, new export controls, and placing Chinese groups on a trade blacklist.
Experts debate whether China has gone too far in its use of export controls, or whether Trump’s response is in Beijing’s interest.
Dennis Wilder, a former CIA expert on China, said Trump was doing what Xi wanted, which was to respond emotionally.
“Trump is embarrassed and has to protect himself from criticism from hawks,” Wilder said. “Xi had to know exactly how Trump would react. He raised his bet in a big game of poker. Will Trump fold or lay down his cards?”
But others claimed that China misread the United States. “Expanding export controls this week seems like a miscalculation,” said Craig Singleton, a China expert at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. “What Beijing sees as influence, Washington sees as betrayal.”
John Moolenaar, Republican chairman of the House China Committee, said China had “shot the American economy.” He urged Congress to pass legislation to confront Beijing, including a bipartisan bill that would revoke China’s permanent normal trade relationship status.
The key to what happens next between Beijing and Washington depends on how Xi reacts to Trump’s threat, the first former US official said.
“The Chinese move has destroyed everything. Xi will not say that My fault“His approach has been maximum engagement, no concessions and forceful, asymmetric retaliation,” he said.
China is unlikely to back down, especially after seeing U.S. markets slump earlier this year when Trump imposed 145 percent tariffs on its goods, said Nazak Nikakhtar, a trade lawyer at Willy Rain.
“Some people think this is a negotiation, but they got it wrong,” said Nikakhtar, a Commerce Department official during Trump’s first term. “This time, China will not give in to the threats. While Xi watches our markets decline, his position is that the United States is shooting itself in the foot.”
But Wang Wen, dean of Renmin University of China, said the new tensions would be resolved through negotiations.
“China’s countermeasures…are helpful and will ultimately bring the United States back to the negotiating table,” Wang said.
China has become accustomed to the “paper tiger” behavior of the United States.
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