Prediction market traders are betting millions on the duration of the government shutdown

Traders in prediction markets are betting on the Fed Government shutdown The matter will extend beyond three weeks, as lawmakers remain deadlocked over the funding plan, and the Senate is not scheduled to vote again until next Tuesday.

Calci traders are giving a 56% chance that the government shutdown will last just over 28 days. Trading volume, or the total dollar amount being bet on this market, is north of $5.5 million.

About 71% of traders expect the government shutdown to last more than 20 days, while approximately 45% believe it will extend for more than 30 days.

Online prediction market Kalshi tracks how long traders expect the government shutdown to last. (everything)

Hopes have faded in prediction markets as traders bet the government shutdown will last for weeks

Meanwhile, 96% of traders on Polymarket expect the shutdown to last just over two weeks, with around $2.2 million betting on the market.

Online prediction market Polymarket on the length of the government shutdown. (polymarket)

Trump says government shutdowns and layoffs are up to Democrats as standoff continues

The federal government shut down at 12:01 a.m. ET on October 7, forcing agencies to send home workers in roles not considered essential.

Vacations are usually short-term: when Congress When the shutdown is resolved, federal employees typically return and receive back pay retroactively. In the past, such confrontations were more political theater than economic crises.

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But this time, President Donald Trump He warned that some furloughed government employees may not be called back to work, turning a familiar standoff into a potential threat to the fragile labor market.