Netanyahu is betting on the far-right coalition in Israel regarding the hostage deal in Gaza

Benjamin Netanyahu hailed the upcoming Gaza ceasefire and hostage release as a “great day” and a victory for his diplomatic and military strategy after two years of war. But it may be the beginning of the end for his premiership.

While almost the entirety of Israeli society has rallied around the US-brokered deal, the prime minister’s far-right coalition partners have expressed opposition to a plan that would require Israel to release nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners from its prisons, including 250 serving life sentences on terrorism-related charges.

Even more troubling for Israeli extremist nationalists – who have long dreamed of annexing Gaza, emptying it of Palestinians, and building Jewish settlements – the agreement requires a permanent end to the devastating campaign without the complete “destruction” of Hamas, along with a commitment not to occupy the area.

For Netanyahu, who has been repeatedly accused of prolonging the war to appease his far-right political comrades, this threatens the support he has relied on to keep his government intact since a Hamas attack on October 7, 2023 sparked the conflict.

“God forbid” there should be “a (release) of a hostage in exchange for stopping the war, as Hamas thinks and brags,” Bezalel Smotrich, the far-right finance minister, wrote on the X website on Thursday.

The measure was comfortably approved by the full Israeli Cabinet early Friday morning, despite opposition from Smotrich’s Religious Zionism Party and National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir’s Jewish Power Party. Interestingly, while both men voted against the deal, neither has yet resigned in protest.

Ben Gvir only said in a statement before the vote that if Hamas rule is not dismantled in the future… Jewish power will dismantle the government.

This precaution is due in part to Netanyahu’s deliberate obfuscation about what the Gaza deal entails.

While Donald Trump’s 20-point plan envisions a comprehensive agreement for a complete cessation of conflict and broader “peace” in the Middle East, Netanyahu has insisted that only the “first phase” of the agreement – the release of hostages in exchange for prisoners and a partial redeployment of the Israeli army – has been agreed upon and nothing more.

Future elements of the plan as envisioned by the US president – which include a complete Israeli withdrawal, the disarmament of Hamas, and the formation of an alternative committee of international actors and Palestinians to manage the Strip – have yet to be negotiated.

“The real question is: Will anyone say this is the end of the war?” An Israeli opposition official said. “As long as Netanyahu is threatening to return to war, there is no point in Smotrich and Ben Gvir overthrowing the government.”

But in a sign of potential political problems ahead, the right-wing Gvora Forum, which represents the families of the dead soldiers, welcomed the return of the hostages but said after their release: “Israel must immediately continue striking Hamas and its leaders until it is completely eliminated.”

“The Prime Minister has made commitments time and time again,” the forum said.

Trump, Netanyahu’s most important international ally, made clear in recent weeks that he was running out of patience with the Gaza war and sought to end it, pressure to which the Israeli prime minister had to respond.

But those close to Netanyahu claim that he himself is now ready to end the war in some way, even if it means losing his coalition and heading to early elections.

“The timing was right to do ‘exit’ now,” said Nadav Strauchler, a political strategist who has worked with Netanyahu in the past. He highlighted Israeli strikes on Iran last summer, the possibility of future normalization agreements with countries like Saudi Arabia, and the specter of Trump coming to Israel this weekend.

“Netanyahu will have to pay the price (for the Gaza agreement). It’s not a complete victory, right,” he said, adding that – with the vote scheduled for October 2026 at the latest – the country is entering an election year anyway.

Opposition leaders, who had issued statements in support of the deal, were, like most Israelis, still waiting to see whether any initial agreement would lead to a true “second phase” that would actually end the war — and perhaps with it the end of Netanyahu’s coalition and chance at power.

The opposition official said, “March 2026 is the best bet (for holding elections), but Netanyahu may try to extend that for as long as possible, until June of next year.”

But as Israelis across the political spectrum celebrated the agreement on Thursday, one thing seemed clear: The most popular politician in Israel is now Donald Trump.

Relatives of hostages still held by Hamas, who gathered crying and cheering with joy in Tel Aviv’s hostage square in the early hours of Thursday, issued a statement expressing “deep gratitude” to the US president for “returning to us what we thought we had lost forever.” There was no reference to their prime minister.

However, the fact that Netanyahu remains in power, retains Trump’s support, and presides over more than two years of war in which regional enemies have been annihilated, may work to the prime minister’s advantage — especially if elections are, in fact, looming.

“There is no better supporter for Netanyahu than Trump,” Strauschler said. “His speech before (Parliament) on Sunday will be the beginning of the election campaign.” “You need to use what you have.”

When asked Thursday evening whether he was concerned about Netanyahu’s political future in the wake of the Gaza deal, Trump said: “Look, that’s politics… I think he’s very popular… and he’s more popular today than he was before.”

Additional reporting by Abigail Hauslohner in Washington