The war in Gaza is not over yet

Even for Donald Trump, a president who relishes his place at the center of world events, it was a dramatic moment.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio interrupted a televised meeting chaired by Trump in Washington, DC, on Wednesday. He delivered the message that the president needed to tell the world they had a deal. Trump told the audience in the room – and millions of others who have now watched the video – that he would have to go.

“They’re going to need me…” “I have to go now to try to solve some problems in the Middle East,” he said, interrupting the day’s business.

Israel and Hamas have signed the first phase of what Donald Trump intends to be a broader agreement next Three days of indirect talks In Egypt.

Mediators from Qatar and Egypt moved between the Israeli and Palestinian negotiators, who were on two separate floors of a hotel in the Red Sea resort of Sharm El-Sheikh.

To add more weight to the talks, and maintain pressure on the Israelis, Donald Trump sent his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, and his envoy, Steve Witkoff.

The Prime Minister of Qatar and the heads of Egyptian and Turkish intelligence were there to carry out the same mission for the Hamas delegation.

The agreement represents a major breakthrough. This does not mean that the war is over. But for the first time since the Hamas attacks on Israel, there is a realistic opportunity to end the atrocities committed over the past two years.

The plan is for the ceasefire to be followed by the release of the remaining Israeli hostages in exchange for the release of Palestinian prisoners and detainees.

The Israeli army will withdraw from its current positions, leaving it in 53% of the Gaza Strip, according to the government spokesman.

Israel will lift enough restrictions on humanitarian aid entering Gaza to allow 400 trucks per day, which will be distributed by the United Nations and other agencies.

The controversial Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, the discredited regime that Israel wanted to replace the UN, was not mentioned in Donald Trump’s 20-point plan.

The agreement is a big step, but more needs to be done to reach the end of the war. Trump’s plan is a framework, with details left to be negotiated. Serious obstacles lie ahead.

Hamas wants Israel to leave the Gaza Strip. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says that will not happen. Hamas is ready to give up its heavy weapons, but it wants to keep some weapons. Netanyahu wants Gaza to be completely disarmed.

He defined Israel’s victory as more than just the return of the hostages. He has said many times that Hamas must be destroyed, with no chance of it reinventing itself in Gaza and posing a danger to the Israelis.

In May 2024, President Joe Biden put on the table a deal similar to Trump’s plan. Subsequently, Hamas agreed to release the Israeli hostages if the IDF withdrew from the Gaza Strip and there were guarantees that Israel would not resume the war. Netanyahu was not ready to agree.

He has repeatedly said over the past two years that continuing the war is the only way to recover the hostages and destroy Hamas.

Biden’s plan may have been too early for both sides. The difference between what happened now and what did not happen in May of last year is that Trump used the leverage that America has over Israel to bring Netanyahu to the table.

Despite expressing concern about Israel’s conduct in the war, Biden has never threatened to end US diplomatic, financial and military support, except for one shipment containing 2,000 pounds of bombs. Israel could not have fought the war without the help of the United States. Biden was not prepared to exploit this reliance. Netanyahu was confident of his ability to challenge him.

Trump has continued military and political support, but he wants more in return.

The crucial event that led to a breakthrough was Israel’s failed attempt to kill the Hamas leadership in Doha on September 9.

Its main target, senior commander Khalil al-Hayya and his senior aides, were discussing the latest version of Trump’s peace plan when the attack occurred.

They survived but his son was among the dead. Al-Hayya heads the Hamas delegation in Egypt.

The Israelis did not inform the Americans in advance that they would attack Doha. Trump was angry.

When Netanyahu asked to meet him in the Oval Office of the White House, he forced him to call the Qatari Prime Minister to offer a full apology.

As Netanyahu read his prepared apology, the cable from the handset ran all the way to a scowling Donald Trump, who was holding the phone in his lap.

The White House released photos that appear to show a school principal making an errant student say sorry.

Trump also issued an executive order granting unprecedented security guarantees to Qatar if it is attacked again. He needed this apology because Qatar is a US ally, hosts the largest US military base in the Middle East, and is a key part of his broader plan for peace in the region.

At its core, there is a grand deal based on Saudi Arabia normalizing relations with Israel.

Instead, the Israeli raid made the Americans look like an ally who could not protect their friends.

Other things have changed: the IDF has killed many more Palestinians and destroyed more of Gaza. Israel is as isolated as at any time since its independence in 1948. Netanyahu’s appearance at the podium of the president of the UN General Assembly in New York in September led to a mass strike by diplomats.

America remains a strong ally, but opinion polls in the United States show that Israelis can no longer rely on the support of a majority of Americans. This reduces the political risk of overriding the Israeli Prime Minister’s objections.

Israel’s European allies, led by the United Kingdom and France, recognized the independent state of Palestine. Their public statements have expressed horror at the killing and destruction in Gaza, and starvation and starvation in some places due to Israel’s blockade of aid.

The September 9 attack on Doha also created a new sense of urgency among Arab- and Muslim-majority countries. A rare united front pressured Donald Trump to get Israel to come to the negotiating table.

If Trump’s 20-point plan is to end the US war, pressure on Israel must continue.

One of the main questions is whether Benjamin Netanyahu will find a way to resume the war after the hostages return to their homeland. His ultra-nationalist allies in the government want that to happen.

The wealthy Gulf states — which Trump admires and wants to play a big role in relaunching and redeveloping Gaza — will keep pressure on the US president to try to make sure that doesn’t happen.

The breakthrough in Sharm El-Sheikh was met with celebrations in Israel and inside the Gaza Strip, which were bittersweet on both sides after so many losses.

In Israel, the families of the hostages and their supporters are waging an ongoing campaign of pressure and demonstrations to get their children out of Gaza.

Opinion polls have consistently shown that a majority of Israelis are willing to end the war in Gaza if hostages, both living and dead, return home.

It is believed that 20 hostages may be alive. Hamas also agreed to return the bodies of about 28 others, although it is not certain that all their graves will be located.

Palestinians Celebrated on the ruins of Gaza. In exchange for the release of the hostages, Israel agreed to release 250 prisoners serving life sentences and 1,700 detainees seized by the Israeli army from Gaza in the past two years.

The Palestinians will welcome them as heroes.

Israel has ruled out releasing Marwan Barghouti, who was arrested in 2002 and later sentenced to five life sentences plus 40 years on charges of organizing attacks on Israelis. Many Palestinians regard him as Nelson Mandela, who spent 27 years in prison for planning attacks on apartheid South Africa before being released to win democratic elections.

Hamas wants freedom for some of its prominent leaders whom the Israelis consider dangerous terrorists. Their release will be controversial.

Yahya Al-Sinwar, who led the October 7 attacks before being killed by Israel, was released in a prisoner exchange in 2011. Hamas’ list is believed to include, among others, Abbas Al-Sayyed, who is serving 35 life sentences plus 100 years for attacks, including a 2002 attack that killed 35 Israelis celebrating Passover.

Another name mentioned was Hossam Salama, who was sentenced to 46 life imprisonments on charges of sending suicide bombers to bomb buses in Jerusalem in 1996, killing and wounding dozens of Israelis.

Donald Trump says the deal could be the biggest thing in the Middle East in 3,000 years. This is a massive Trumpian exaggeration.

But if the exchange of Israeli hostages for imprisoned Palestinians is to be followed by progress on other points that are needed The agreement in Trump’s plan There is a real chance that some of the suffering will end on both sides.

Despite the risks ahead in very difficult negotiations, optimists are already hoping that the end of the war in Gaza will usher in a new era in the Middle East. This requires a level of application and consistency that Trump has not yet demonstrated.

The short, sharp negotiations in Egypt suit his brash and bullying style. Finding a way to end the conflict now in its second century between Israelis and Palestinians for control of the land between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea will require a very different set of skills.

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