Does artificial intelligence put jobs at risk? A recent survey found an important distinction

A decade ago, everyone from online trolls to the Obama administration had the same suggestion for young people looking for a stable, long-term career path: Learn programming. Today, this is due in large part to Generative artificial intelligenceThis advice has been turned upside down. Don’t learn programming. Maybe train to become a nurse.

Software engineers and other jobs dominated by math and computer jobs are most at risk of being automated and replaced by artificial intelligence, according to a poll released last week by SHRM, an organization representing human resources professionals. SHRM has been cleared More than 20 thousand American workers To see what percentage of tasks have already been automated across many different job types. It also looked at non-technical barriers to automation, such as customer preferences and regulatory requirements.

The results show an important distinction. Just because a lot of tasks can be done by machines Doesn’t mean the job is in danger taken or eliminated. The survey estimates that 15.1% of the jobs held by American workers (23.2 million jobs) are at least 50% automated, and that 7.8% (12 million jobs) are at least 50% automated by generative AI. However, only about 6% of jobs in the United States (9.2 million jobs) are at risk because they meet these descriptions.

In fact, the share of roles at risk is much lower than AI industry expectations. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei He said earlier this year Artificial intelligence could wipe out half of entry-level managerial jobs in the coming years, pushing unemployment to between 10% and 20%. Rather than a massive or sudden deterioration of the labor market, we could see AI driving a more gradual reshaping of the workplace.

“It’s an extraordinary technology that will certainly change the way we all look at work, but it may not lead to the kinds of job displacement that some suggest,” James Atkinson, vice president of thought leadership at SHRM, told CNET.

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What stands in the way of automating jobs?

Concerns about AI taking over jobs are well documented, with multiple public opinion polls sounding the alarm. For example, a Pew Research Center poll conducted earlier this year found that 64% of Americans Fewer jobs expected In the next twenty years because of artificial intelligence.

The SHRM survey focused more specifically on individual workers and their jobs. One of the reasons she surveyed so many people was because she wanted to get samples for as many job categories as possible. “We wanted to really get the perspective of the people who do the work day in and day out,” Atkinson said.

Read more: AI basics: 29 ways you can make AGI work for you, according to our experts

Surveying actual workers provides a deeper understanding of the actual reasons why automation may not completely replace a particular job. SHRM defines “non-technical barriers” as things that prevent an AI from doing work, but not because the AI ​​lacks the technological capacity to do so.

The biggest non-technical barrier was customer preferences. Atkinson used the example of pilots. Computers may already be able to fly planes, but no passenger wants to peek into an empty cockpit without a human present.

Another non-technical barrier includes legal and regulatory barriers, such as union contracts, although regulations may change as AI advances. Finally, there is the issue of cost effectiveness. Self-checkout can make financial sense at a large, profitable chain like Walmart, but less so at an independent corner store that needs a human cashier.

These barriers may help explain some recent statistics that have shown the difficulty companies have in actually implementing AI in the workplace. An MIT study found that 95% of corporate AI pilot projects It does not lead to actual savings or improvements. There is still a large gap between the promise of new technology and its actual productivity.

What jobs are most and least likely to be automated?

Computational and mathematical work stands out as being particularly at risk of displacement. The report found that about 12.8% of these jobs have at least 50% of their tasks automated and there are no obvious non-technical barriers. Other high-risk professions (such as architecture, engineering, or management) face similar issues, while some (such as production) are largely automated in ways that do not involve generative AI.

Areas less likely to be automated have significant human interaction. Regarding healthcare practitioners, for example, the Society for Healthcare Management found that only 3% of jobs have at least 50% automation and no non-technical barriers. Personal care and social services functions were similar.

“The health care industry is one of the only industries that continues to see job gains month over month,” Atkinson said. “It is an industry that is growing, and will continue to grow as our demographics age, and it is also the type of occupation that tends to be the least at risk of displacement.”

Atkinson said the survey results show a need for workers with human skills rather than just technical skills. What can’t a generative AI tool do?

“We see organizations saying we need people who can solve problems in general,” he said.