JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon says a recession could hit as early as 2026

In his contracts he leads JPMorgan ChaseDimon’s economic opinion has been viewed as a barometer of the health of the American economy. But those who follow Dimon also know that he conducts rigorous stress testing at JP, making sure the organization can withstand a range of outcomes.

To that end, Dimon isn’t taking next year off the table — even though GDP is currently tracking upward. according to Latest numbersUS GDP increased at an annual rate of 3.8% in the second quarter of 2025.

But there are distinct questions for analysts: particularly those who like Dimon and who refrain from falling to the overly bullish or bearish side. These questions include the impact of tariffs on inflation (if or when such an increase increases success), as well as geopolitics, the labor market, and whether AI will deliver the returns that investors make.

Dimon echoed that caution in an interview this week, saying: “I think (a recession) could happen in 2026 — I don’t worry about it is a different statement. We’ll deal with it, we’ll serve our clients, we’ll navigate through it. Many of us have been through it before.”

Previously, the billionaire banker warned that the US economy was weakening, Saying in September After a modest jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, whether this weakness trickles down to an economic contraction remains to be seen.

He struck a similar tone this week, saying in the conversation with Bloomberg“You don’t want to because you know some people are hurting,” he said, adding: “How is it all? We’ll see.”

Damon warns with some tried-and-true pointers. the SAHM base indicator– which marks the beginning of a recession when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate is 0.5 percentage points greater than the lower end of the three-month averages of the previous 12 months – a comfortable 0.13%, helped by a relatively stable unemployment rate.

Likewise, JPMorgan itself wrote earlier this year that the odds of a recession are now at 40%, although global economist Joseph Lupton noted in May be divorced The bank expects “material headwinds to keep growth weak through the rest of this year.”

Dimon, who wasn’t one to bank on one outcome or another, countered the warning with some reasons for optimism: “But I think there are positives — like the record cancellation is a real positive, which also helps animal spirits… And you know, in the ‘big, nice bill’ there’s also a stimulus, and it has a positive for the economy but maybe a negative for inflation.”

Lockdown is a bad idea

One thing is for sure: the current government shutdown is not good news for anyone. Washington is currently held at a standstill over funding, with threats that workers who have not received payments will not get paid back and perhaps even their jobs when they do return.

Likewise, a majority of traders expect the government shutdown to last more than 15 days, with 52% expecting it to last more than 20 years. This presents problems for the Federal Reserve, which will meet in a week to decide on the base rate without key data from the Federal Reserve releases.

“Look, I don’t like the shutdown. I think it’s just a bad idea — I don’t care what Democrats or Republicans say, it’s a bad idea,” Dimon said. “It’s no way to run railways.”

Until then, Dimon, like many others on Wall Street, doesn’t expect the shutdown to impact the economy in a material way: “You know, one of them is gone for 35 days, I’m not sure…if that really impacts the economy, the market in a real way.”

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