Gold prices rose to evaluate heights with the start of the US government closing on Wednesday.
Chris McGrath Getty Images News | Gety pictures
Gold prices rose to their highest new levels on Wednesday, such as the United States government She entered her first stop Within almost seven years after legislators failed to reach an agreement on government financing.
While the impact of government closure on the market is usually minimal, this timing is important. Critical American job data to be published on Friday It will be lateIt is raised in expectations for the federal reserve just weeks before its next meeting. President Donald Trump Also threaten To use the closure to reduce “a lot” of federal employees, who are usually neglected during the closure and re -work as soon as it ends.
With no clear way towards a deal, it is also not clear the time the closure will continue. During the first period of Trump in his post, a partial operation was made for 34 days- The longest in history.
The average market changes on the last closure
| The closure period | Full days | Closure | S & P 500 ( %) pure change | Vix net change points | Change the DXY net | A 10 -year net change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/22/18-1/25/19 | 35 | partial | 6 | 8- | -2 | 17 |
| 1/20/18-1/22/18 | 3 | partial | 2 | 4 | -2 | 15 |
| 1/1/13-10/17/13 | 16 | Filled | 3 | -1 | -2 | -14 |
| 12/16/95-1/6/96 | 21 | Filled | -3 | 4 | 0 | 1 |
| 11/14/95-11/19/95 | 5 | Filled | 3 | -1 | 1 | -10 |
| 5/5/90-10/9/90 | 3 | partial | -5 | 3 | -3 | 2 |
| middle | 1 | 0 | -1 | -4 |
source: Bank of America
Amid uncertainty, The origins of the lost riskWhile gold – which is usually seen as a safe origin in the times of economic or geopolitical turmoil – continued to gather his abundance to reach the level of its thirty -ninth number this year.
Gold spot He was trading at $ 3,893.06 an ounce by 5:02 am American golden futures For expanded delivery gains to reach $ 3,918.10.
$ 4000 gold?
“The gold mode as a safe haven is well published, but the height that does not calm down the price of gold over the past few years was really amazing, as the minerals reached its highest fresh levels,” Michael Field, the chief stock strategy in Mooringstar, told CNBC in an email on Wednesday.
While he pointed out that the driver behind the rally on Wednesday was the closure of the US government, Field argued that “just the straw that broke the camel’s back.”
He said: “There are two main main struggles, political instability in France, the newly announced tariff, all this unites to create a very unstable image of investors.” “And when it becomes difficult, gold gets a boost.”
Gold price spot
Philip Gigsal, chief strategy official at BNP Paribas Fortis, has long been believed that gold can cross a brand of $ 4000 – and now it is believed that the metal can rise.
“Gold quickly closes the 4000 goal that we put forward … about a year and a half ago,” he said. “At that time, this step was only driven by the purchase of the central bank while investors were clear from the yellow metal, (but) since the beginning of the year, the investors came on board, which clearly quickly moved to the upward trend.”
He said that amid uncertainty and constant volatility, and an environment of sticky inflation all over the world, investors were widely taking a point of view that they should diversify away from the classic 60/40 portfolio strategy “with solid assets” like gold.
“However, we are still very early in the game as gold -related investments barely 2 % of the medium investment portfolio around the world,” added Gigsal. “To say this in terms of baseball, we are only in the second or third half.
In a note for customers on Wednesday morning, Johnny Tefis also argued that gold was still existing.
She said: “We expect Gold Paul Ranz to continue in the coming quarters, driven by the growing sites of investors and the continued expansion of the investor base in gold. With the presence of the Federal Reserve Reducing Course, the dollar’s weakness and low prices must be up to the price of gold.”
Tefis noted that UBS expected the assembly to wander at the end of 2026, in anticipation of the end of the Federal Reserve Reduction and Improving Economic Conditions.
“However, given the structural shift in the role of gold until it becomes an essential part of strategic assets allocations, we expect the correction to be finally contained and prices to settle at high -term levels higher in the long run.”
– Alex Harring and Farid Embrt of CNBC contributed to this article.
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