Ford CEO says Trump kills EV tax credit can reduce the industry in half: “A smaller way than we thought.”

The end of support is a structural shock The already ripples the sourceBattle makers face an increased surplus in the United States and factory factory, undermine the aspirations of reshaping them and preparing a threat from a lack of future if the capacity is deeply cut off.

Speaking at the Ford Pro summit in Detroit on Tuesday, Ford CEO, spokesperson at the Ford Pro summit in Detroit on Tuesday, said he sees a major impact on policy change. Although he still sees EVS “a vibrant industry” is moving forward, it “will be much smaller and smaller than we thought.” The end of the consumer incentive of $ 7500 called for changing the game and said that he would not be surprised if EV sales decreased in the United States to 5 % of the industry from the current level from 10 % to approximately 12 %. Newest Expectations from JD Power and Globaldata It is estimated that EVS will make up 12.2 % of new vehicle sales in September 2025.

Farley reminded the audience that he always says, “customers are annoying. They are surprised by you.” What he knows is that “customers do not care about an electric vehicle worth $ 75,000. They find it interesting. They are fast. They are effective. You don’t go to the fuel station. But it is expensive.”

Farley added that the good news for the treatment of cars is “a more interesting partial electricity for customers than we thought … We believe that the hybrid ingredients, EV, E-ERVS, this type of partial electric solution, will fall in love with it, or already falls in love.” They fall out of love with EVS for pure play, implicitly.

What happened just

• Federal incentives – to $ 7500 for new EVS and $ 4000 for use – ends after September 30 Advanced legislation By the White House and government government, the removal of the sale point that directly reduced transaction prices since 2024.
• The level of the last increase was raised forward in August – September, with Analysts expect now Jeep in the fourth quarter, with prices, effectively increased by pesticide credit and consumers stop to re -evaluate value and financing.
• Some original equipment and merchants try to extend the value by renting structures that pick up the remaining credit mechanics during the end of 2025, but these are temporary measures, not restarting the Federal Procial Procial Program.

• Book of play in the near -term of Detroit confirms the margin: slow EV production stairs, setting the priorities of the edges with a clearer profit, and the mixture of balance towards the hybrid where the consumer price sensitivity is less and reduce compliance pressure without paying the federal EV.
• Ford and Granur Motors Publishing Rental of captive financing to temporarily pass the credit savings, as it seeks to maintain the traffic of the show hall while avoiding the accumulation of inventory after credit; This supports the volume stabilization, but it presses the margins of financing and cannot replace support at the country level.
• TimingRivian, and other EV -pure plays face the elasticity of direct demand, which lack ice or hybrid hedges; Invested concentration turns into price elasticity, low cost, and options export where local “natural demand” is tested on absent incentives.

• With support support, Evan high prices For ice, especially in the parts where the battery costs are still not borne in addition to thousands of dollars; Manufacturers may respond with selective discounts, but this will vary as a model according to the model and may not compensate for full credit loss.
• Analysts Expected The market share in the United States EV stops to less than 10 % in the short term where Lull is run after a line, even with 2025 still represents a record sales year due to the rush; The main question is how quickly the flexible demand is returning as OEMS re -calibrates the pricing and the division.
• Hybrids is placed to get a share as a familiar technique for the bridge with less costly costs and a lower number of shipping concerns, compatible with the priorities of the OEMS margin and the lighter compliance system.

• luck US battery surplus reports The emerging with the slow demand for EV, with Bloombergnef estimated the deployment of the local battery until 2030, a sharp drop against pre -quality expectations; The cancellation and late factory plans raise the risk of a future capacity that fluctuates prices and fluctuates prices if the highlands are high.
• Experts warn of the effect of bulls: Today’s surplus can turn into a lack of tomorrow after capabilities, which complicates cost curves and undermines the critical learning benefits of competitiveness in the long term against the curved ecosystem in China.
• The political mix-ultimately with EV with the relaxation of other organizational pressures-is the incentive for the old original equipment to pay the size of EV, which increases the investment suppliers in the short term even as global competitors continue in cost sessions.

• Pricing and incentives: OEM discipline discipline in exchange for defending participation, and how leasing passes after the end of the year.
• Model Mix: faster hybrid launches and delay EV, especially in the comprehensive transit processes and trucks that are associated with the ability to withstand costs.
• Supply Series: Any reflection of canceled battery projects or axes in fixed storage to absorb capacity and stability.
• Politics: Incentives at the state level and potential federal amendments clarify, as the quarter -quarter data show the real “natural demand” without subsidies.