Experts expect the minimum economic impact from the closure of the potential government

The partial closure of the federal government may begin in the middle Economic impactAlthough it is unlikely it has a significant effect based on the previous closure.

The government is funded until 11:59:59 pm East time on Tuesday evening, when the current financing that will continue until the end of the fiscal year 2025 ends – which creates the possibility of the government closing to start the beginning of the 2016 fiscal year on Wednesday.

Government closure It happened periodically since 1995, when the Republicans took control of Congress for the first time in 40 years. Usually occur amid differences between legislators and the White House on spending, taxes and other financial issues. Non-basic workers are subjected during the closure, while the main workers remain in the job-although they are usually not paid until the separation ends in government financing.

“History indicates that government closure will have a limited impact on the economic and financial market, but there is a possibility for some turmoil in the market in the coming days,” said Doug Beth, a global stock strategy expert at the Wales Vargo Institute for Investment.

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Beth added, noting that there are potential federal job data: “The closure suspends the public data leaflet at a time when the federal reserve is carefully monitored the data to take more price reductions. There are job data in the private and huge sector of manufacturers’ surveys, but this may not be conclusive.”

Federal Reserve The head of the Chicago Bank, Austan Golsby, said in a discussion run by Edward Lawrence, from Fox Business at the Agriculture Conference in the Middle West of 2025, although the Federal Reserve Bank is on the sidelines of government closure, the level of economic impact depends on the duration of the decline in financing in addition to its scale through the federal government.

“Historically, the wrong closure that does not last for a very long time not to do anything for the macroeconomic economy because, yes, their salaries have not been paid, but the spending of people does not decrease because they will know that they will be salaries in the end,” Goolsbee explained.

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“Therefore, it depends on the time when this is going. It depends on its presentation. If there are reasons that make this closure different from the previous closure, we will have to review. But this is a kind of starting point.”

Before Goldman Sachs Economists have indicated that most government closures were short and that the longest closure in 2018 lasted 35 days – although it only affected about 15 % of the federal government as Congress approved funding allocations for about 85 % of operations at that stage.

The Goldman SACHS report indicated that for every week of government closure, federal signals will reduce economic growth a quarter of a quarter of a quarter by about 0.15 percentage points from GDP in the fourth quarter, with a positive impact on the first quarter growth with the assumption that the closure ends at that time.

It was also found that the closure could be temporarily raised UnemploymentBut the effect should be small as the unemployed workers are reported on a temporary layoff.

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The company’s report clarified that previous closure operations had a mixed impact on the financial markets, with no clear pattern of how to respond to stocks, interest rates and US dollars. However, the treasury revenue for 10 years noticed a decline while the dollar usually weakens.

A report issued by the Management and Budget Office on the effects of stopping operation in the fiscal year 2014 indicated that there are some areas of economic turmoil caused by the closure.

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Among them stopped Allow, reviews and licenses (An example of energy projects); Exclusive to verify the tax authority’s income for the financial institutions that examine the borrowers; Stop to hundreds of small business loans; In addition to tourism and travel disturbances from the closure of national gardens.