The Federal Reserve Administration, the Central Bank of Oman and Trump, launches conflicting economic expectations

The American economy at a turning point like Federal Reserve Reducing interest rates for the first time this month amid indications that the labor market is weakening, although the remaining inflation is 2 % higher than the Federal Reserve goal.

Uncertainty is the highest medium Trump administration Changes in commercial policy and definitions as well as transformations in immigration policy, which produced an uncertain look at economic growth, inflation and unemployment from prominent institutions.

The declaration of federal reserve rates was accompanied by updated economic expectations, while the CBO budget budget office (CBO) and the Trump Management and Budget Management Office (OMB) also issued new expectations.

Below is a look at how the Fed, CBO and OMB reserves see the economic growth, inflation and unemployment rate for the next four years.

The Federal Reserve reduces interest rates for the first time this year amid twice the labor market

Economic growth

Real GDP real The growth of (gross domestic product) reached 2.4 % in 2024, although it is expected to slow this year before recovery in the coming years, while the latest data of the Trade Department shows that the economy has grown at an annual rate of 1.6 % in the first half of 2025.

The Federal Reserve’s expectations appear 1.6 % in the fourth quarter of 2025 compared to the same quarter of the previous year. Then the GDP growth is expected to increase to 1.8 % in the next year and 1.9 % in 2027 before returning to 1.8 % in 2028.

CBO expectations From September, 1.4 % of GDP for 2025, rising to 2.2 % in 2026 before returning to 1.8 % in 2027 and 2028.

the OMB Trump Administration GDP growth by 1.8 % in 2025, rises to 3.2 % in 2026 and 3.1 % in the next two years.

The American economy grew faster than expected in the second quarter

Economic inflation

One of the most closely monitored inflationary measurements is the PECE Expenditure Index (PCE), which is the preferred inflation scale of the Federal Reserve to evaluate it and aspire to maintain price growth with its long -term goal. In August, PCE inflation It was 2.7 %.

Federal Reserve Projects in which PCE inflation will rise to 3 % year on an annual basis in the fourth quarter of 2025. Then inflation slows to 2.6 % in 2026, before declining to 2.1 % in 2027 and returning to the central bank’s goal by 2 % in 2028.

PCE PCE enlargement will rise to 3.1 % in the fourth quarter of 2025, which sees a decrease to 2.4 % in 2026 before returning to 2 % in 2027 and 2028.

The Trump Administration is estimated that PCE enlargement will be 2.4 % at the end of this year, and it will decrease to 2 % in 2026 and then remain there until 2028.

Another common Inflation scale It is the Consumer Prices Index (CPI), issued by CBO and OMB updated estimates for this month.

CBO believes that the consumer price index reaches 2.8 % year on an annual basis in 2025, before a decrease to 2.7 % in the next year and 2.2 % in 2027 and 2028. The consumer price index in OMB Projects will be 2.5 % this year, will decrease to 2.2 % in 2026 and then rise to 2.3 % in 2027, before returning to 2.2 % in 2028.

Unemployment

The growth of jobs has been cooled in recent months, with the unemployment rate It rises to 4.3 % in AugustWith the job statistics office is expected to issue a job report in September on Friday, with the exception of a possible disorder caused by a possible government closure. The last time a report on jobs on the specified date was October 2013, when the government was closed on a confrontation between Republicans in Congress and the signing of President Obama, the law of care at reasonable prices.

Federal Reserve Projects Unemployment It will rise to 4.5 % in the fourth quarter of this year before a gradual decrease to 4.4 % in 2026, 4.3 % in 2027 and 4.2 % in 2028.

The Central Bank of Oman sees the unemployment rate of 4.5 % in the fourth quarter of 2025. Then it offers a decrease to 4.2 % in 2026 before returning to 4.4 % in 2027 and 2028.

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The Trump Administration Project will decrease the unemployment rate to 4.1 % this year based on an average annual measurement. Then it offers a decrease to 3.9 % in 2026 and 3.7 % in 2027 and 2028.