Trump’s latest plan to end the war in Gaza contains the same wires that the previous wires have

Despite the ambiguity of Donald Trump, the 20 -point peace plan to end the war in Gaza will create “eternal peace” in the Middle East, which can be governed by many of the same reasons that killed the ceasefire hopes earlier.

The main point in the ceasefire proposals was the so-called “the next day” in Gaza-the issue of what will happen to the Palestinian animals packed after Hamas released the remaining Israeli hostages that had been carrying it for nearly two years.

The last ceasefire, which lasted less than six weeks between January and March, after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu collapsed He decided not to do Go to the second and third stages of the proposed deal.

He would have seen the Israeli forces withdrawing from Gaza and ending the fighting permanently, paving the way for the lands shattered to start the long reconstruction process.

But in this agreement, where the Israeli forces are exactly withdrawing, who will precisely supervise the process of rebuilding Gaza, and what forces that security will provide to the pocket has not been clearly clarified.

“Peace Council”

The new Trump’s proposal finally provides details – in some cases, a very specific discussion.

Trump maintains the largest job for himself, as head of the so -called “Peace Council”, which will also include former British Prime Minister Tony Blair and other heads of state whose name has not been revealed.

The Palestinians will participate in the “technocratic level”, which constitutes a committee responsible for the daily administration of public services.

It is worth noting that there was no mention of the role of any United Nations agency, such as the United Nations Relief and Business Agency, which before the war was responsible for providing many health instructions and other social services in Gaza.

Hamas, and other armed groups in Gaza, will have to agree to disarming completely and its members cannot have a role in the future Gaza government, although Israel says it will allow members who abandon violence to stay in the region.

Until now, Hamas has rejected the main demands of Israel – disarming the hostages and issuing them – because he said that there is no way to ensure that Netanyahu is not broken his word and the fighting resumes as soon as the hostages were returned, which happened in March.

In fact, Netanyahu has repeatedly explained that he would continue to fight until Hamas was completely destroyed. Three days ago at the United Nations, he said that Israel “must end the job” in Gaza.

The presence of Trump and Blair and the heavy participation of the neighboring Arab countries on the transitional council, and perhaps as part of the military stability force, is likely to aim to reassure Hamas that this time the deal will be committed.

Broken ceasefire

But it is far from what is certain that it will.

Israel signed a ceasefire in the United States with Lebanon in late 2024 after the Iran-backed leadership from the party group Hezbollah-just only accused of violating the ceasefire.

In fact, the Israeli forces remain in several areas of southern Lebanon in violation of the agreement, and the screens stated that more than 150 people have been killed in Israeli attacks since they entered the armistice.

Crisis Mairav ​​Zonszein analyst says that the proposed model for Israeli withdrawing from Gaza is similar to those in Lebanon.

“Israel has freedom of work and will only be withdrawn when Hamas is removed, which will not happen,” she wrote on social media.

Trump’s plan calls on Israel to exit Gaza City as soon as the hostages are launched and that Israel “will not occupy or include Gaza.” But it also says that Israel can keep the forces in large comprehensive areas of the region until the stability force has made sufficient progress in suppressing any possible “terrorist” threat.

There is no attached timeline – this means that the Israeli forces can remain in the region for many years, which Hamas has repeatedly rejected.

“I think it is a victory for Netanyahu,” said Marwa Mazyat, a professor of international relations and Israeli studies at the University of Maryland.

She told CBC News that the main points paid by the Netanyahu government-the release of the hostages, Gaza, which is the end of Hamas rule and a security environment inside Gaza-part of the Trump plan of 20 points.

Mazyat says that the only privilege that the Prime Minister of Israel that he makes seems to be that there will be no enforced displacement for the Palestinians from Gaza, just as many of Israel’s political right were paid for.

Netanyahu also insisted on the absence of a role in Gaza for the Palestinian Authority (PA), which rules the occupied West Bank.

When Prime Minister Mark Carney joined the other Western leaders last week in Acknowledging a Palestinian state It includes Gaza and the West Bank, and Canada said that the Palestinian Authority should be its government.

While Trump’s plan says that the Palestinian Authority must eventually take over in Gaza, it states that this will only happen once “the completion of the reform program” – once again, is a mysterious schedule enough to allow Netanhayu to do that this day will never come.

“The vast majority of Israelis have no belief that Pa Leopard will change its positions,” Netanyahu told a news conference.

Erga Ataad, a anti -terrorist researcher at Reichman University in Tel Aviv, says this leaves the main question about who will manage Gaza after Hamas without an answer.

“There is a need to get a new type of driving. So the main question is still. Who will be, who will take driving from this day on up? She said.

Haellyer of the London -based Royal Services Institute, Haellyer, says the Trump plan is the Palestinians ’plan out of most of the main decisions on their future.

He wrote: “Gaza will remain completely in light of the Israeli occupation, with international confidence in some issues. The reforms of the Palestinian Authority may occur (but) there is no accountability mechanism to ensure the transfer of the base to it.”

Netanyahu also rejects, once again, that is, the opportunity to agree to Israel on a Palestinian state – although Trump’s plan bears the low hope that it will lie at the end of the process.

What happens after that is largely dependent on Hamas’s reaction. The group said it would carefully look at all the ceasefire proposals.

This may mean that there will be no yes or no, but days or weeks of discussions or clarifications.