Do we really need a 6 -hurricane category?

For more than 50 years, predictors at the National Hurricane Center used the SAFFIR-Simpson (SSHWS) window to classify the hurricane power. This scale, which is classified as category 1 to category 5, depends on only one scale: the maximum speed of sustainable winds.

This was not always the case. Until 2012, SSHWS also took into account central pressure and storms, but NHC canceled these factors to reduce general confusion. The problem is that the high global temperatures The multiple risk of hurricaneNot only the wind speed. In recent years, extensive storms exceptionally sparked, such as Milton, Patricia, and Hayan, a discussion about whether the time has come to create a 6 category.

For these tools, we asked many experts about any aspect of this discussion. Although some are more open to the idea than others, all of them agreed that adding 6 category to SSHWS is not the solution – although many past hurricanes Wind speeds exceeded 5 category. Instead, some argue that connecting the hurricane risks in the world of warming may require completely rethinking the scale, while others believe that the current system should remain unchanged.

Jennifer Collins

Professor at the Earth Sciences College at the University of South Florida participated in developing an alternative to SSHWS.

The current SSHWS depends – as the name suggests – on the wind only. With regard to this scale, my thoughts in Category 6 are that it is not required when Category 5 on this range completely destroyed anyway. There has been a lot of discussion about this in the scientific community about a decade ago, and I think this general consensus.

our The newly proposed rangeTCSS, the wind is only 10 % of deaths. The storm represents an increase of approximately 50 % and the rain is about 30 %. Our scale includes all these three hurricane risks, with each one appointed between 1 and 5. Then, it gives a total category that cannot be less than the highest given category.

For example, the Florence Hurricane in 2018 will be a 1 cat in Loomfall for Wind, Cat 4 for Storm Surge, and Cat 5 Hains. Therefore, the overall result will be Cat 5. If you are thinking about floods and loss of lives, I think people who lived through it will agree to describe it as a 1 cat – which SSHWH did – does not reflect the other risks that they suffered from sufficiently. People reduce the risk of a low -category hurricane, or even a tropical storm, when they think about the evacuation decision, according to my previous research research.

The proposed TCSS also reflects the potential risk of two or more risks. We consider a great danger when classifying its category as 3 or higher (equal to the definition of a large hurricane on SSHWS). The more no less than the high risk of the same category and the third danger contains a lower category, this collides with the total category of the hurricane by 1. Thus, a tropical hurricane with CAT 3 points will be classified for both winds and storms, but the CAT 1 degree of rain, will be classified as CAT 4.

As such, a high -risk tropical hurricane can be classified as CAT 6 on TCSS in a scenario. Either at least two risks are CAT 5S, or two danger are CAT 4S and the other is a cat 5. This aims to warn the public of a hurricane with multiple risks.

Brian McKennie

One of the senior researchers at the Rosinstel College at the University of Rosinstel at Miami University, Earth Sciences, and Earth Sciences that have been written and written about the activity of the tropical Atlantic Ocean since 1996.

My general idea is that adding CAT 6 is not necessary and will not add any value to the current information set there.

Since 1980, CAT 5 hurricanes only represented about 5 % of all storms called the world. In the Atlantic Ocean specifically, they reached 4 %. I am not convinced that dividing this small number of storms into boxes smaller has any advantages.

The most intense Atlantic Hurricane was Allen was Allen in 1980, with the maximum sustainable wind of 190 miles per hour. Nothing has reached this sign since then. If the threshold for the cat is at least 6 winds at least 193 miles per hour, as proposed in This studyFor example, no hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean will not qualify.

Moreover, dividing these small numbers into smaller numbers does not change communication with the risks. The National Center for Hurricane describes the following hurricane CAT 5 Marsedi: “Disaded damage will occur: a high percentage of outstanding homes will be destroyed, with a total ceiling interruption and the collapse of the wall. Fallen trees and energy columns will work to isolate residential areas.

What is the additional communication of the risks that will be there for category 6 if one should fall?

Liz Richie-Tayo

Professor at the Faculty of Earth and Environment at the University of Monash, also holds the position of Deputy Director of the Center for Excellence at the University in the twenty -first century.

The answer is “no”.

SSHWS was developed in the United States by a hurricane and wind engineer to put the maximum sustainable wind thresholds on land damage levels. If the hurricane is a 5 cat on SSHWS, then this means that it is expected that it will be catastrophic damage. Thus, the new “CAT 6” has no meaning in terms of connecting threat levels.

All hurricane classification systems for all tropical hurricanes depend on the maximum sustainable wind speeds. Whether it is SSHWS in the North Atlantic and North Pacific, or other standards in the west of the Pacific, Indian Ocean, and Southern Pacific, but the main idea is the same: once the hurricane reaches the first category, the catastrophic damage is likely if the hurricane has led to a decline.

The main restriction of the current classification systems is that they do not rise enough to adequately connect the threat, it depends only on the wind threshold, which does not pick up all the potential risks associated with the drop hurricane.

What we really need is a new “multi -factor” classification system that can connect the threat of multiple risks, which are winds, high storms, precipitation, floods, and landslides. Depending on the land site, the different risks will be more important. Along the coasts, winds, waves, and high storms, while floods and clay collapses caused by heavy rains are more important at home.

Moreover, the maximum speed of the winds does not embody the air range of the winds of the storm that creates waves and height of the storm. The higher the area of ​​this destroyed wind, the more potentially the storm increases. Likewise, the maximum wind intensity is not related to heavy rains. Although it is correct that the CAT 4 and 5 hurricanes produce heavy rains, the CAT 1 hurricanes can produce heavy rains.

Therefore, the multi -factor classification system that can connect the risk of different risk will be more useful than adding an additional class to the current scale.

Daniel Brown, head of the NHC specialist branch

The head of the nhc hurricane branch. In this role, the unit that issues the predictions of the tropical hurricane and warnings of the Atlantic Hurricane ponds and the east of the Pacific Ocean is supervised.

Currently, there are no ongoing efforts within the NOAA to modify SSHWS or add a new 6 category.

The storm categories only continue the risk of wind. Upon warning the public against the risks associated with tropical systems, the National Hurricane Center transports a wide range of risks, including increasing storms, winds, rain, hurricanes and currents.

We do not affect the risk of wind by putting a lot of focus on this category, because most of the deaths caused by tropical hurricanes are caused by the risk of water. Increased storm, precipitation, internal floods, and dangerous browsing about 90 % of the direct deaths of tropical hurricanes in the United States

Moreover, the Safir-Simpson Scale Class actually captures the worst possible damage, which has been classified as “catastrophic damage”. Regardless of whether the storms are increasing, the damage cannot become worse than “catastrophic”.

Mark Bourasa

Professor of Meteorology at the Center for Prediction Studies at Florida State University in the oceans with experience in air/sea interactions, surface water waves, identifying tropical disturbances, and potential sects of tropical hurricanes.

One can present an argument that the best construction is widely and improved measurements would allow us to classify storms with stronger than CAT 5, but would this be useful for any reason other than to keep a more detailed record?

I find any hurricane that is so worrying enough that I doubt that a new category will have any impact on the general response. People who will not sit or cannot evacuate the CAT 3 or 4 usually cannot or cannot evacuate a stronger storm as well.

There are other types of information that the predictors try to communicate clearly, and this is more useful than identifying the new storm category. Storm predictions maps are a good example of improvements affecting communication with the risks of hurricanes.

I hope to see clear messages about the possibilities of many wind speeds that reach the area I live and work. I also welcome more information about the expected internal floods. This information will be more useful than distinguishing between Storm 5 and CAT 6, both for the public or for emergency management.

However, the arguments I offer against the creation of CAT 6 are not particularly fair because the goal of such a appointment appears to be a record instead of providing a lot of additional information. There is no reason for not being able to follow all these options, but speaking as a person lives near the Gulf coast, I would like to see better probability maps of the main hurricane risks.