The era of low tie costs in the rock correction in the United States may soon end, and it may lead a new era of high costs and the basic inventory depleted to reduce the impact in America in meeting the growth of global demand.
This is the latest experience from Enverus Intelligence Research, which he said in a new a report This week, the border cost of US oil supplies is expected to increase from $ 70 a barrel WTI price Nowadays, up to $ 95 a barrel by mid -2010. The increase of $ 15 a barrel in costs will be driven by a shift from the stock that has proven economically confidence to more expensive sites as the main stock is exhausted, according to Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR).
High cost, global influence faded
The Enverus report says that the depletion of the basic oil and gas stockpiles in North America will have effects on global energy markets, especially the American ability to meet global demand.
“The dominance of North America to supply the growth of global demand for oil demand is dwindling,” Alex Liopogvich, the director of Eir, said in a statement.
“During the next decade, its contribution to consumption growth is expected to decrease to less than 50 % – a blatant contradiction with the previous ten years when it has provided more than 100 %.”
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However, the Pramean Basin in West Texas, New Mexico, and Canadian oil sand and will remain the least sources in North America for developmental oil supplies, as Enverus believed.
The oil sand will benefit from the strong Canadian Western prices (WCS) and amazing infrastructure costs, and can open the additional infrastructure capacity of ready -made meals to Canadian oil production estimates. Currently, Enverus expects that oil production in Canada will rise by 450,000 barrels per day (BPD) by 2030, up to expected High score For 2025.
However, the American rock patch will have to face growth curves in the flavored of moving forward amid oil prices close to the current Brekevens and remove the basic stock, making companies changing investment strategies.
“Since the main shale oil stock in the United States is draining, the industry enters a new era with higher costs and more complicated. This shift will reshape the cost curve and redefine investment strategies throughout the continent,” said Ljubojevic of Enverus.
The United States, the oil rock slows the pits
Amid the drop in oil prices this year, the rock correction in the United States is in waiting and vision, and the price decrease will be installed with the minimum adjustments to the strategies. American oil producers reduce capital spending budgets, relying on efficiency gains from the current drilling activity to maintain production levels.
American oil production is increasing due to the delay between oil and drilling slices, but adult rock producers are already claiming the peak of oil production, despite the best efforts of the Trump administration to support the fossil fuel industry.
For example, efficiency gains, as well as synergy from Integration endeavor And low service costs, DiamondBack Energy allowed its 2025 capital budget to be reduced by $ 100 million, or about 3 %, from the previous center point, to 3.4 – 3.6 billion dollars.
“With continued volatility and uncertainty, we do not see any convincing reason to increase activity this year.” letter In early August.
Since it has reached the peak, most likely, the oil production in the United States is likely to have reached its climax, probably, the levels of activity in the 48 are probably a decrease, “since the Q1 message to the shareholders,” continues to believe that at current oil prices, the levels of activity in the 48 are less. “
High costs and continued uncertainty, including American commercial policies, led to Further In Pramean’s oil and gas activity, executive officials from producers and services services said in the latest survey in Dallas in the Federal Reserve of Energy published this week.
In the poll, most executives estimate, 57 %, that regulatory changes since the Trump administration in January 2025 have reduced their companies’ costs for new wells. With less than one dollar For every barrel. Additional discounts of 25 % range between $ 1 and $ 1.99 a barrel, while none of the large E&P companies have seen more than $ 5 per barrel to reduce the cost of executives.
Moreover, most executives have informed that they were late in investment decisions in response to the increasing certainty about the price of oil and/or the cost of oil production.
“The administration is paying $ 40 for raw oil for the barrel, and with a tariff for foreign tube goods, the prices of (inputs) increased, and the drilling will disappear. The oil industry will again lose the precious employees.” Stuck For survey.
Another one blames both the previous and current departments to break American rock works.
“What was once the most dynamic energy engine in the world may have been subjected to political hostility and economic ignorance,” said CEO.
They added that the previous administration distorted the industry and chanted when Wall Street moved away from the oil rock, but they indicated that “now the current administration ends the task.”
The CEO said: “The US Energy Ministry, who tells them what they want to hear instead of difficult facts, is guided by a little understanding of the rock economy.”
“Instead of supporting local production, they have effectively agreed with OPEC – using supply tactics to pay prices below economic dolts, and kneeling American producers in this process.”
The monotheism of the rock correction was fed through the breakdown of capital. This monotheism, in turn, pushes independents and businessmen who once identified the Oilic rock revolution, according to the CEO.
“In their place, a handful of giants is now dominating but at the expense of losing massive jobs and destroying the innovative culture and the risks that made the American rock industry great.”
By tsvetana parskova for OilPRICE.com
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