The major economists in India say that the US definitions offer 10 million jobs

In India today in Mumbai, three of the country’s leading economists including Tanvi Gupta Jain of UBS, Sajid Zeenoy from JP Morgan, and Citiburti from Citibank, a cautious note on the prospects for the country’s growth amid the tariff of the United States of America and a biased global trade ranking.

Tanvi Gupta Jain, the chief economist in India in UBS, highlighted the impact of sharp sanctions on India’s exports. She said: “The 50 % penalty, which includes a 25 % mutual tariff and a 25 % penalty for buying military equipment from Russia, is one of the highest emerging markets.”

According to Jain, approximately $ 35 billion of Indian goods is offered, equivalent to about 0.8 % of GDP. Pain is the most severe in low margin sectors, dense labor such as gemstones, jewelry, textiles, leather and shoes, which use more than 10 million workers.

“We see a gross domestic growth traction due to these high tariffs. Nevertheless, India is still expected to grow by 6.7 % in the 26th fiscal year,” and indicated that the need to enhance local demand.

Sajid Z Chinoy, Managing Director and President of Economists in India, JP Morgan, warned of revenge measures. “From a narrow economic perspective, a very simple answer, no. We have a lot to lose from revenge and escalation,” he said. The importance of service exports, which represents 7 % of GDP compared to only 1 % of goods exports to the United States.

He added: “This is the center of urban consumption, the functions of white collars and housing. We must negotiate in good faith, and in the short term, we provide a bridge to keep institutions alive. Just as we did during Covid with the support of the targeted financial and credit.”

Simiran Chairporte, Citibank India’s chief economist, chanted the urgent policy procedures, but urged to rethink on a broader scale. “It is important to arrest this as soon as possible, but we also need to realize that the world has become more protection. We can no longer build a future growth novel on exports,” he said.

Chakraborty suggested that India uses the current crisis to push long long reforms such as GST and create a new growth story that attracts global capital.

In general, the committee agreed that the story of the local demand in India provides flexibility, but maintaining growth in the world of reverse globalization requires bold reforms. In the words of Jin, “stimulating consumption is not sustainable. For medium -range growth from 6 to 6.5 %, structural repairs are the only narration that the government can swing.”

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