American bilateral talks in India, amid expectations for progress in the deal

With the Minister of Trade and Industry PIIUHOH GOYAL and a team of senior officials in the United States, discussions between the two countries are taking place with expectations that will lead to the way forward and help in obtaining a commercial deal.

While the government refrained from any comment on the ongoing visit, the sources indicated that multiple discussions are ongoing on a set of issues in an attempt to move forward in the suspended negotiations.

The Minister of Commerce, along with senior officials, including the private secretary and the chief negotiator, Rajash Agrouwal, in the United States this week, and the delegation is expected to return later in the week.

GOYAL’s visit to the United States comes shortly after the American Trade negotiator Brendan Lynch, the assistant assistant to the commercial actor in South and Central Asia in New Delhi and held long discussions with Agrawal on September 16.

The main stick point is 25 % additional tariff for Indian exports, which India hopes to withdraw by the United States. It is also hoped that the commercial deal will reduce and reduce the current 25 %.

India has also remained firm on its position that it will not open sectors sensitive to agriculture, dairy and GM feeding, while the new American policy on H1B visas is seen as another double in bilateral relations.

Indian exports bears high definitions. According to the recent GTRI report, India’s exports decreased by 22.2 % between May and August 2025, as it decreased from 8.8 billion dollars to $ 6.9 billion, as the customs tariff increased from 10 % to 50 %.

“The month of September will be the first full month, as all category C exports face a 50 % tariff, which means that declines in textiles, gemstones, jewelry, shrimp, chemicals and solar panels can deepen more,” he pointed out.

Analysts also warned of the impact of definitions on the economy. “While exposure to export of direct goods in India is modest at about 2 % of GDP, high definitions can erode
“Competitiveness and inflating the impact of indirect growth,” said a report issued by CareDGE.

The agency noted that if 50 % of the American customs tariffs persist, they can withdraw GDP growth in India to about 6 %, as the agency indicated. She said: “We are still optimistic about a caution about a decision in the coming months, which can bring the customs tariff in India to its peers, and the ultimate reduction of rupees.”

India’s assessments also said that it expects to increase the current account deficit in the second quarter of the financial due to the problems of American tariffs to an estimated $ 10 billion (1 % of GDP), which will be higher than three quarters. The current account deficit amounted to $ 2.4 billion (0.2 % of GDP) in the first quarter of the fiscal year.

India’s rankings expect that goods exports will be pampered to the lowest level in three quarters of about 110 billion dollars in the second quarter of the fiscal year. However, goods’ imports are expected to rise to about $ 189 billion in 2QFY26, due to fixed domestic demand.