What a Trump visa of $ 100,000 for industries and the United States means means

Panic and confusion, then the hasty White House climbed – it was a weekend of hundreds of thousands of Indians on H -1B visas.

On Friday, US President Donald Trump amazed the technology world by announcing up to 50 times A rise in the cost of the permits of the skilled factor – to 100,000 dollars. Following chaos: Silicon Valley companies urged employees not to travel outside the country and workers abroad Flights defendedAnd immigration lawyers worked as the additional work to decode this matter.

By Saturday, the White House sought to calm the storm, clarification The fees apply only to new applicants and it was once. However, the old H -1B program – which was criticized for undermining American workers but praised the attraction of global talents – is still facing an uncertain future.

Even with the disk modification, the policy has effectively ratified the H-1B pipeline that, for a period of three decades, operated the American dream of millions of Indians, and most importantly, to provide a lifeline for talents for American industries.

This pipeline has reshaped both countries. As for India, H-1B has become a means of ambition: programmers in the small town have turned into dollar owners, domed families in the middle class, and the entire industries-from airlines to real estate-to meet a new category of roaming Indians.

For the United States, this means pumping talents that fill laboratories, classrooms, hospitals and startups. Today, Indian executives are originally running Google, Microsoft and IBM, and Indian doctors constitute nearly 6 % of the workforce in American doctors.

The Indians dominate the H-1B program, and make up more than 70 % of the beneficiaries in recent years. (China was the second largest source, about 12 % of the beneficiaries.)

In technology, their presence is more clear: The request for the Freedom of Information Law showed in 2015 More than 80 % of the “computer” jobs went to Indian citizens – Those familiar with the industry say if it does not change much.

The medical sector emphasizes the risks. In 2023, more than 8,200 H-1BS was approved to work in public medicine and surgical hospitals.

India is the largest source of international medical graduates (who are usually in us on H-1B visas) and be About 22 % of all international doctors. With the formation of international doctors up to a quarter of American doctors, H-1B Heroes are likely 5-6 % of the total.

Experts say salary data shows that the new Trump fees amounting to $ 100,000 are not applicable. In 2023, the average salary for the new H-1B employees was $ 94,000, compared to $ 129,000 for those already in the system. Since the drawings are targeting new appointments, most of them will not earn enough to cover experts.

“Since the latest directives in the White House indicate that the fees will only apply to the new H-1B recipient, this is more likely that this is a shortage of medium and long-term employment rather than immediate disorder,” said Gil Ghwera, an immigration policy analyst at the Nissanin Center, told the BBC.

India may be shocked first, but the effects of ripple may work deeper into the United States. The giants of the use of Indian external sources such as TCS and Infosys have long been prepared for this by building local workforce and converting delivery abroad.

Story numbers tell: Indians still represent 70 % of H-1B recipients, but only three of the best 10 H-1B employers have relationships with India in 2023, a decrease from six in 2016, according to PEW Research.

The IT sector, which costs $ 283 billion in India, is definitely facing an account with its reliance on the Egyptian skilled workers, which represent more than half of its revenues.

The Nasscom Information Industry Authority believes that high visa fees may “disrupt the continuity of work for some land projects.” Customers are likely to press for re -purchase or delaying projects until legal uncertainty is cleared, while companies may rethink employment forms – transfer work abroad, reducing wild roles and becoming more selective in care decisions.

Aditya Narayan Misrea from Ciel HR, a pioneering company in the field of recruitment, says Indian companies are likely to transfer the increasing visa costs for US customers.

“With the frequency of employers in adhering to the heavy cost of care, we can see more dependent on workers and surrender abroad and the party workers.”

The broader impact on the United States may be severe: it is possible that hospitals facing a doctor’s deficiency, universities that are struggling to attract STEM students, startups without pressing the Google or Amazon muscle are the most severe.

David Bear, Director of Immigration Studies at the Kato Institute, said, “This (the high visa fee) changes to change the US companies to change the employment policies abroad. It will also be prohibited by the founders and directors of senior US -based CEOs to manage US -based companies.

This anxiety is repeated by other experts. “It is expected that the demand for new workers will increase in areas such as technology and medicine (in the United States) (albeit in inaccurate ways), and given the extent of the specialization of these fields and critical, the shortage that lasts up to a few years can have a serious impact on the American economy and national welfare.”

“It is also possible that more skilled Indian workers will stimulate looking at other countries of international study and has a successive impact on the American University system as well.”

In fact, the effect will be more severe by Indian students, who make up one in four international students in the United States.

Sudhanshu Kaushik, founder of the Indian Student Association in North America, which represents 25,000 members in 120 universities, says that timing – immediately after September records – has left many new arrivals, said Sudhanshu Kaushik, founder of the Indian Student Association in North America, which represents 25,000 members in 120 universities.

“It seemed to be a direct attack, because the fees have already been paid, so there is a large sunken cost ranging between $ 50,000 and 100,000 dollars per student – and the most profitable road to enter the American workforce has been blurred now,” Mr. Kushik told BBC.

The ruling is expected to strike the amount of the American University next year, as most Indian students choose countries that can “extinguish them with permanent roots.”

Currently, the full impact of tax raising remains uncertain.

Immigration lawyers expect Trump’s move to facing legal challenges soon. Mr. Guerra warns that the repercussions may be uneven: “I expect the new H-1B policy to bring a number of negative consequences for the United States, although it will take some time to find out what it might be.”

“For example, given that the executive matter allows certain companies except for companies, it may be possible for some H-1B heavy users like Amazon, Apple, Google and Meta a way to exempt H-1B fee policy. If they all get exemptions, this will greatly defeat the purpose of fees.”

With the stability of dust, the disposal of the H-1B appears to be less tax on foreign workers and is more like a stress test for American companies-the economy. H-1B visa holders and their families contribute about $ 86 billion annually to the US economy, including $ 24 billion of federal salary statements and $ 11 billion in government and local taxes.

It will determine how companies respond whether the United States continues to drive in innovation and talent – or waive the most welcoming economies.