The Federal Reserve’s DOT conspiracy shows additional price discounts for 2025

the Federal Reserve On Wednesday, interest rates were first reduced in 2025 and issued the expectations of the quarterly policies of economic conditions that clarify the potential expectations of further discounts in prices, as well as inflation and labor market.

The reduction point reduced 25-Basis, the standard federal money rate to a new range from 4 % to 4.25 %, after prices were held in the first five meetings of this year amid economic uncertainty in the labor market and inflation amid tariff attacks and changes in immigration policy.

Although the remaining inflation is higher than the Federal Reserve’s 2 % goal and the definitions that are expected to push the inflation up to next year, the FBI reduction rates in response to smooth signs in the labor market in recent job reports.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which directs the monetary policy movements of the Central Bank, has released its semester summary of economic expectations – known as “”Point plot– Who is unknown to the policy makers’ expectations for a set of indicators.

The Federal Reserve reduces interest rates for the first time this year amid twice the labor market

The DOT Bank of the Federal Reserve shows other discounts in interest rates this year, with 25-Basis expectations at the Central Bank Politics meetings in October and December. This would leave the average federal funds with an average of 3.6 % this year, in the range of 2.9 % to 4.4 %.

It is expected to slow the pace of price discounts in 2026 and 2027, which has medium estimates of 3.4 % and 3.1 %, respectively.

Policymakers expect that the Personal Consumption Expenditure Index (PCE), Federal Federal Infederation ScaleIt will rise to 3 % this year based on the average average in limits between 2.5 % and 3.2 %. Core PCE, which excludes flying food and energy prices, is expected to reach 3.1 % in 2025 in a range from 2.7 % to 3.4 %.

The inflation remained stubbornly in August, where the Federal Reserve weighs discounts in interest rates

the Unemployment This year was also expected to rise to 4.5 % on average average with policymakers’ vision in the range of 4.2 % to 4.6 %. Next year, the unemployment rate is expected to be 4.4 % in the range of 4 % to 4.6 %.

Economic growth It is expected to come 1.6 % of GDP (GDP) in 2025, in the range of 1.3 % to 2 %. Growth policy makers see an increase to 1.8 % next year in the range of 1.5 % to 2.6 % in 2026, before more estimates of 1.9 % on a range from 1.7 % to 2.7 % in 2027.

Bill Adams, chief economist at Komerica Bank, said the Dot plot “shows that 10 FOMC members prefer to reduce prices by at least half a percent by the end of 2025, while nine members are preferred to a percentage or less than additional discounts.”

Senate Stephen Miran confirms the Federal Reserve before the decisive price reduction meeting

“The division of points on the DOT plot is something that should be seen. One member believes that the Federal Reserve should raise a quarter of a percent before the end of the year, and six members believe that the Federal Reserve should be kept.” “Two additional point members see one more appropriate percentage, and nine sees half a percent of discounts (percentage points discounts in each of the following two decisions.)”

“One of the FOMC members believes that the Federal Reserve should reduce prices by 1.25 % by the end of the year to a range of 2.75 % -3 %; this is the latest member of FOMC, Stephen Miran. Adams explained that this is a wide range of opinion about the decisions that are not far away in the future.

Michael Pears, Vice President of US Economists in Oxford Economic, noted that Miran “is the clear match in economic projections”, which pushed down the average average rate of this year and “hides the deep division of FOMC” in the near term of the broken rate.

“The DOT conspiracy that shows two other discounts this year enhances the idea that today is the first in a series of discounts and the markets should give a positive boost,” said Sima Shah, chief international strategic expert in the management of the main assets.

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Shah added: “The DOT conspiracy next year is a mosaic from different views, which is an accurate reflection of the confusing economic expectations, which have been clarified due to the transformations of the labor offer, the concerns of measuring data, government policy disorder and uncertainty.” “In general, though, CUT 25-Basis-Point today allows chatting to make a slowdown without excessive reaction of early signs of stress.”