Wall Street is fully convinced that the basic price reduction will come this week. Relatively moderate inflation and weaknesses led to bond investors Pricing at 0.0 % The FOOC Open Market Committee (FOMC) maintains fixed prices when it meets tomorrow and Wednesday.
Not every member of FOMC is sure.
In fact, Deutsche Bank believes that it is possible that the powers of the Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell will be tested in diplomacy this week, as many FOMC members are expected to oppose the majority of votes – with some members who push to keep fixed rates, while others prefer more aggressive.
Jim Reed from Deutsche referred to clients this morning: “There are likely to be different views within the committee. On the Duofish side, there can be three calling for a 50bp reduction and perhaps one or two voting unchanged.
A group of views on FOMC is not unusual: after all, there are 11 people in the committee, with five additional members, other members of the Governor, and economists from all over the country present their results. Not only can some difference in opinion, but welcome to draw a full picture of the economy.
But the members do not agree to politics so strongly that they vote against the viewpoint of consensus is a reference to tension markets at the highest level: if FOMC members are not on board, then why should Wall Street be? As Bob Hetzel, who was previously the leading economists in Richmond Fed NPR saidThe opposition on FOMC is “very frustrated and very annoying to the financial markets.”
With opposition to a possibility, but not certainty, the markets were relatively flat on Monday morning. S&P 500 decreased by 0.048 %, and Nasdak by 0.44 %. In Europe, FTSE was 100 flat, an increase of 0.013 % and CAC 40, an increase of 0.93 %, while Nikkei 225 increased in Asia by 0.89 % and SSE by 0.26 %.
The real market that is moving in anticipation of the Federal Reserve meeting is gold, and now reaches 40 % so far this year. However, Mark Heifelli of UBS notes that if the Fed Reserves reserve a reduction with prices remaining, real returns will decrease. As such, while the bank reserves an attractive vision on the original, advice to investors to keep a percentage of medium numbers from allocating their governor to gold.
Analysts expect that two FOMC members will be particularly explicit in calling for a greater rate of average: Conservatives Chris, Wald, Michelle Bowman. Both were opposed to consensus at the last meeting and pushed a reduction, while the group voted in general for a comment.
And wir has Click on discounts A few months ago, I must call for the Federal Reserve “looking” in the inflation produced by President Trump’s introductory plan. Instead, focus on the primary momentum of the economy, which he felt slowed and will appear in work personalities.
At that time, the speculators asked whether Walir might simply be “testing” the role of the Federal Reserve Chairman, where Trump explained that when Powell ends next year, he will be replaced by an individual with a less restricted position on interest rates. Trump’s pressure on the Federal Reserve has been the story of 2025 until now, as the Oval Office, which is called the president “is too late” until he refused so far.
This argument was strengthened by weaker data from the employment side: The economy added only 22,000 jobs last month, and confirmed the Ministry of Labor’s reviews in the year until March 25, America added 911,000 jobs less than previously thinking.
On the other hand, some FOMC members called for the most patient’s approach due to health in other parts of the economy. The Federal Reserve Chairman in Kansas City Jeffrey Schmid said Fox’s work Last month, although monetary policy may be currently restricted, it is not “very restricted”, as he said: “With stock prices near standard levels and bonds are spread near their lowest levels, I see little evidence of a very restricted monetary policy.”
Powell tone
Although Powell’s vote is more technically calculated than any other member, his position as a federal reserve leader will inevitably color the tone of discussions.
The president has of course pushed the approach to “waiting and see”, but as Bank of America He was asked in a memo on Friday: “How difficult is the Powell axis?” Economists, Claudio Erigwneh and Antonio Gabriel, wrote: “The Federal Reserve has reduced the 25 -point section of its meeting in September. Markets will look at the SEP press conference to assess the frequency and extent of advanced discounts.
“Powell’s description of the slow employment (league or structural?) And will provide inflation (one time or sticky?) Evidence for the path of his expected policy.”
Gregory Daco, Ey-Parthenon Senior Economist has the same question. On Friday’s note, he said: “While the markets are currently pricing with three price cuts before the end of the year, we believe that the Federal Reserve will continue gradually. There is still a reduction in October, but it is possible that it will require negative printing or close to zero-Sepmember Payroll.”
Here is a snapshot of markets worldwide this morning:
- S & P 500 futures contracts 0.11 % rose this morning.
- Stoxx Europe 600 0.40 % increased in early trading.
- FTSE 100 in the United Kingdom FLA was, an increase of 0.013 % R.
- Japan Nikki 225 It was 0.89 %.
- China CSI 300 It was 0.24 %.
- South Korea Cuban It was 0.35 %.
- Elegant India 50 It was a decrease of 0.18 %.
- Bitcoin It was a little bottom, to just less than $ 115,000.
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