Obesity

Eli Lily and Novo Nordsk They are preparing to take their competition to the next limits of weight loss: birth control pills.

Both companies expect the launch of oral obesity drugs in the United States next year, once the organizers agree to it. Daily grains can display more people on the GLP-1S, the medicine category that is famous for the weekly shots.

But after Lilly pills produced weight loss less than what analysts expected in A. A late trial of the stageNew questions about the extent of adoption of oral drugs on a large scale that will make the competing company the space.

Dan Skoverski, chief scientific official in Lily, said in an exclusive interview with CNBC, that doctors will look at a closer look at how to compare Lilly and Novo pills in the coming months when Lilly releases the results of a face -to -face trial. The main goal of the study is to measure how much pregnancy pills can reduce blood sugar levels in people with type 2 diabetes, but it will also measure weight loss.

“We did not conduct this stage of the stage to the third stage of the third stage unless we have a lot of confidence in the fact that OrforiPron will exercise well compared to orally orally,” Skovronsky said.

He warned against making comparisons through experiments that did not compare medicines directly, as Novo pills appear more effective and led to a lower interruption. Meanwhile, the chief scientific official in Novo Martin Holst Lang in A. Separate interview He said the data is talking about itself.

Obesity coming from Novo is an oral version of Wegovy’s weekly shot; Lilly’s pills are a new drug called OrforiPron that differs from the Zepbound shot. Night shot It is the golden standard in terms of effectiveness, Skovronsky said. People can help lose more than 20 % of body weight.

No Novo pill or orally oral medication like zepbound. At the top of the dose, Orforglipron produced about 12 % of weight loss, while semaglutide by orally led to about 17 %. This raises the issue of the number of people who will choose birth control pills if it means lower weight loss.

However, Wall Street expects the pills to make great invasions in the coming years. Analysts sees oral drugs, which account for about 20 % of the estimated market of 80 billion dollars in GLP-1 in 2030, according to evaluation data.

Skovronsky believes that pills can eventually become the basic way in which obesity is treated all over the world, and that oral medications can have a greater market share of injection. He said that most patients are more concerned about other factors such as supply and comfort than the weight they can lose, and it is believed that OrforiPron has the edge.

Treatment is a small molecule drug like most grains know people. It can be manufactured more easily than peptides, such as shots and Novo pills. It does not come with food and water restrictions that come with the Novo option orally, which requires people to wait 30 minutes after taking the medicine to eat and drink.

“When I look at the pill, it does not have a food effect, it is a small molecule, so manufacturing should be easier,” said Ivan Sigramman, an analyst at BMO MARKETS. “But with the new administration in Novo Nordsk, I think (the new CEO) Mike Dosdar will not only take this and rest about it. He will eliminate and ensure the success of this launch.”

After seeing the results of the trial of obesity pills in Lilly, Seigerman moved some of its share of the market from Orforglipron to semaglutide by mouth. Analysts cut their 2032 estimates to OrforiPron at a rate of about $ 4.5 billion between May and September, according to the evaluation. They now see sales of $ 14.56 billion that year.

Skovronsky said it is difficult to predict the market dynamics of science.

“We have done a good work to predict science,” he said. “We said that we will make orally that had safety, endurance and effectiveness that was similar to the injection GLP-1. We have done so. I have played parts of science. Let’s see how the market is running.”