Despite the descending review of American work data, which is close to one million jobs over the past year, the markets are not interested this morning. It is not as if there was a recession … right?
Jimmy Damon is not completely convinced. naturally , Jpmorgan Chase The CEO is famous for his “modified for anything”, as he runs the largest bank in America on the basis of continuous stress test and risk assessment.
In the face of news that the BLS statistics office (BLS) re -calibrated its reports for the year that ends on March 25 to 911,000 roles, Damon said that “the economy is weakening.”
Moments were asked after the data decreased, the CEO of the billionaire He told cnbc: “Whether it is on his way to stagnation or weakness, I only do not know – this confirms only what we have already thought about. This is a great review.”
The volume of change exceeded analysts’ expectations. German bankFor example, he wrote in a memo for customers on Monday that it is expected that it will range between 50,000 to 60,000 jobs per month, which may lead to a reduction in 600,000 to 720,000 instead of the number near a million.
The discussion also discusses whether criticism can be directed to BLS due to the size of these reviews. Many economists argue that the Foundation can only reports based on the breadth of the evidence it receives – and the responses to its polls decrease. Likewise, experts indicate that even changing part of the percentage can lead to huge fluctuations in numbers, given the size of the American workforce. In case of this week’s data, the review was only 0.6 %.
However, organizations will look forward to data from government agencies with increased caution, especially since the White House also interferes with this issue.
Dienon said that his team has always taken into account federal data in addition to reporting from within his bank and other NGOs: “We are getting data as you do not believe. Government data is important, we get data from NGOs, and you can consider state data and data around the world, and we get all of this.
“We hope that things are fine, but you see this kind of weakness.”
What is the stagnation?
The job data last week, which revealed that the American economy added only 22,000 jobs in August, was not enough to convert the needle on the chances of stagnation.
Joe Prussuelaas, the chief economist in RSM, wrote to customers on Friday note: “The chances of stagnation have not increased, and we do not expect one in the short term. But the labor market loses momentum.
Likewise, David Doyle, the chief American economy in Macquari David Dowle luck Last week, the balance of “tie” function will help reduce the US economy that enters negative growth. Doyle was speaking before reviewing 911,000 this week regarding the most modern data and how she draws the path forward.
Dowle described the economy as a low rental environment, as new works roles are not created in large numbers, but massive layoffs do not occur either. He added that the recruitment is slower to be compensated by lower migration and retirement, while maintaining an employment rate of 4.3 %.
Although the slow environment is not very enjoyable for job seekers, it “isolates” the economy from great fluctuations that can be seen in larger activity periods. The low tie means that the changes in the unemployment level are more “gradual”, adding: “so that it is a beacon against an acute height of unemployment. Often … when we see a ride, this sharp height and drama in unemployment and creates negative effects, and the effects of the cycle that are confident, where holes suffer, which start without spinning.
Adding more support to the idea that the economic shrinkage can be avoided is the David MERICLE from Goldman Sachs, which highlighted “reviews provide limited information about the current situation of the labor market because it applies to the year ending in March 2025, although we still believe that the labor market has reduced financially.”
The clients also told that the bank believes that the reviews are “probably very great”, explaining: “The same source data has been reviewed continuously to the top, and it is possible that many unauthorized immigrants who were initially captured accurately excluded in salaries. Our model of the pure model was born in polytheism 100 km from reporting 147K at the beginning.”
MERICLE added that the data will change the thinking of the Federal Reserve, however, which enhances confidence in Goldman’s call to three discounts of 25 bits per second in September, October and November, with other quarterly discounts in 2026 to raise the basic price to 3 to 3.25 %.
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