What is behind the political crisis of France and what can happen after that?

Francois Bayro, the French Prime Minister, is scheduled to lose a vote on his confidence in his last development in a period of chaos within the National Assembly.

Bayro, 74, is the fourth prime minister within two years during the era of President Emmanuel Macron, who was overwhelmed by his second term due to political instability.

The Qatari minority government called for 44 billion euros (38 billion pounds) of the budget cuts to treat the escalating public debts in France and is now heading to collapse.

BBC is looking at this political crisis and what can happen after that.

French President Emmanuel Macron took a gambling in June 2024.

In the face of the loss of bruises of his party in the European Parliament’s vote, he described the sudden parliamentary elections that he hoped to achieve a “clear majority in serenity and harmony.”

Instead, this led to a suspension, divided parliament that made it difficult for any prime minister to obtain the necessary support to pass the annual bills and budget.

Macron was appointed Michelle Barnier last September, but within three months, the man who negotiated Britain’s exit from the European Union was outside – the shortest period since the start of the Fifth Republic of France.

Bayro is scheduled to suffer from the same fate, less than nine months after he reached his post last December.

Meanwhile, some parties – mainly on the far right and the far left – continue to bustle in early presidential elections.

Macron has always said that he would not deviate before his term in 2027.

Instead, he will likely choose to choose between appointing a fifth prime minister in less than two years – risking once again to work on borrowed time – or call Snap elections for Parliament, which may lead to a more hostile national group.

There are few good options for the president with the continued effects of his gambling in June 2024.

The main Peru issue is the debt crisis of France, and what it says is the need to reduce government spending at the head of a disaster for future generations.

Simply put, the government of France spent more money than it was born. As a result, it must borrow to cover its budget.

The French government says, early in 2025, the public debt amounted to 3345 billion euros, or 114 % of GDP.

This is the third highest general debt in the euro area after Greece and Italy, and equivalent to approximately 50,000 euros for every French citizen.

Last year’s budget deficit was 5.8 % of GDP, and this year is expected to be 5.4 %. Therefore, the public debt will continue to grow as the borrowing covers this deficiency.

France – like many developed countries – faces the demographic headache of the aging of the population – fewer workers who are subject to tax and more people who draw state pension.

Bayro is among these French politicians who want to reduce the deficit by redefining generous social programs – such as state pensions.

In his speech to Parliament on Monday, Bayro talked about a country about “supporting life” and addicted to spending.

Two years ago, France raised the retirement age from 62 to 64 for those born in 1968 or after that, and Bayro warned that the feeling that French workers can stop working during the early 1960s is now old.

However, there is a lot of opposition for more discounts. Bayro’s ancestors collapsed in a vote of confidence in this case last December.

Politicians on the left called for high taxes, instead of budget discounts.

If Payro loses voting in the National Assembly early in this evening, it is possible that France will turn for another period of doubt, erosion and speculation.

President Emmanuel Macron can act quickly to appoint a new prime minister – it is certain that the country is in the interest of doing so.

But the practical aspects-and the race-indicate that this may turn into a drawn process.

Macron must find a name that cannot be intercepted enough for some parliamentary opposition, at least that they will not transfer it automatically.

It took the first two session in this novice parliament – Barnieh and Bayro – weeks to find them. The third will not be easier.

Meanwhile, Bayro is supposed to remain prime minister.

There is pressure from some circles – especially the National Rally of Le Pen – for a new solution to the association and parliamentary elections. But there are also strong voices that it will be a waste of time, because the new vote is unlikely to change a lot.

Moreover, there are also sounds – from the far left this time – calling for Macron’s resignation as president. But do not see this space. Knowing the person’s personality, is unlikely to happen.

If Payro falls, the pressure will be strong on the Macron to name a successor from the left. The last two were from the right and the center, and the left coalition came out of the highest numbers in the 2024 elections.

Olivier FourThe leader of the Socialist Party, will be one of the possibilities. The 57 -year -old has a group of 66 deputies at the National Assembly.

Two other possibilities from the left Former Prime Minister Bernard CasinoffAnd the veteran Former Minister Pierre MoskovichiCurrently, Cour Des Comps, the official office of accounting.

If Macron decides to stick to the position and right Sebastian Likurna, 39The current defense minister, who is a member of the Renaissance Party in Macron and is said to be close to the president.

Another governor whose name is the current Minister of Labor and Health, Catherine Futrin.

Two other possibilities from within the government Interior Minister Bruno RitayoWhich is now leading the Republicans, and Justice Minister Galled Darmanin.

But with all the eyes in the 2027 presidential elections, do these heavy weights want the kiss of the electoral death that will be the next Prime Minister to be?