How could the incoming Trump administration impact the M&A market?

President-elect Donald Trump A return to the White House could shake up the mergers and acquisitions market after President Biden’s administration successfully challenged several high-profile mergers in the past four years.

The Biden administration’s Federal Trade Commission (FTC) and the Justice Department’s Antitrust Division have intervened in a number of proposals. Mergers and acquisitions To challenge deals that they considered undermined competition and potentially harmed consumers.

Among the deals that were eventually blocked by federal courts or abandoned by the parties to the deal was Kroger’s $25 billion acquisition of Albertsons, while mergers between airlines JetBlue and Spirit, as well as fashion companies, were also blocked. Luxury Capri and Tapestry. By judicial rulings.

With FTC Chairwoman Lina Khan set to leave the agency later this month, and the leadership of the Justice Department’s Antitrust Division also set to change with the new administration, market participants expect a second Trump administration to take a lighter approach to deals in… The next four months. Years.

Mergers and acquisitions blocked or vetoed by the Biden administration in 2024

KPMG conducted an annual year-end survey of corporate and private equity dealmakers and found that 76% of respondents said the election results would increase M&A activity in the US, while 80% said it increased their appetite for deals. possible Tax policy The changes were viewed as a boost to M&A activity by 811% of dealmakers, while 79% said the election would lead to an easier regulatory or antitrust environment for deals.

Similar sentiments were found in a recent Teneo survey that found 83% of CEOs and 87% of investors expect the M&A market to see a significant return in 2025, up from 68% last year. The percentage of respondents who expect more M&A activity increased from 17% to 37% among CEOs and from 26% to 34% among investors.

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The survey also found that 86% of them CEOs and investors They expect there to be an accelerated pace of M&A activity under the Trump administration, while 80% of CEOs and 74% of investors expect the administration to have a positive impact on completed deals.

Trump’s pick of Andrew Ferguson to be FTC chairman, the $35 billion “merger of the two” in early December and potential tax changes in 2025 mean “the writing is on the wall,” Ted Jenkin, president of Exit Stage Left Advisors, told FOX Business. “The next four years should be very strong for M&A activity.”

Inflation is easing, said Raj Sharma, director of strategic business development and mergers and acquisitions at Itochu Low interest rates Dealmaking is likely to strengthen during the Trump administration, along with a new approach to scrutinizing such deals.

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“President Trump has generally been quite lenient on mergers and acquisitions in the financial services, energy and industrial sectors during his tenure,” Sharma added. “He is expected to be accommodating again in his second term, although he will be critical of the influence of Big Tech and will not be supportive of mergers and acquisitions in this area.”