New Delhi, India — When China announced the creation of new provinces last week, it set boundaries that included swaths of territory claimed by India as part of Ladakh, a region federally administered by New Delhi.
India was quick to respond with a public protest. Indian Foreign Ministry spokesman Randhir Jaiswal said New Delhi “has never accepted China’s illegal occupation of Indian territory in this region.” He said China’s announcement would not give any “legitimacy” to Beijing’s territorial claims.
The latest dispute between the two Asian giants highlights the fragility of the detente they declared along their disputed border in October, after a four-year standoff between their forces. The neighbors have withdrawn many of their soldiers, although questions about the future of territory previously controlled by India but allegedly seized by China since 2020 remain unanswered on both sides.
Now, the relationship between India and China appears poised for another big test, analysts say: US President-elect Donald Trump.
The former president, who effectively launched a trade war with China in his first term, has threatened to do so Imposing 100% customs duties On imports from China. But while Trump described Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi as a “good man,” he also threatened to impose tariffs against India.
As the date of his inauguration approaches – January 20 – Trump appears to have softened slightly his position on China, the central country in the business interests of the next US president’s ally, billionaire Elon Musk, who is also expected to have a role in the Chinese economy. administration. All of this raises concern among sections of India’s strategic community.
Jayant Prasad, a former Indian diplomat, said Trump “has a tendency to flatter his enemies and worry his friends.”
In November, shortly after winning the US presidential election, Trump said he would “save” the Chinese-owned social media app TikTok, which he owned. He once sought a ban. Trump also invited Chinese President Xi Jinping to attend his inauguration. Beijing neither accepted nor declined the invitation – at least publicly – although some analysts said Xi was unlikely to attend.
On the other hand, it is not known that Trump sent a similar invitation to Modi, with whom the American leader held two joint gatherings in 2019 and 2020, in Houston and the Indian city of Ahmedabad. Indian social media is filled with memes mocking Modi, suggesting that External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar’s visit to Washington late last month was aimed at appealing to the Trump team for an invitation to its boss.
Analysts said Trump’s ambivalence toward China troubled New Delhi, who warned that either extreme – a harsh crackdown on China from Washington or a deal with Beijing – would be bad for India.
“There is a double risk for India in a second term,” said Christopher Clary, a non-resident fellow at the Stimson Center and associate professor of political science at the University at Albany.
“Trump and his team may be more hawkish than New Delhi’s preferences, especially regarding trade and investment flows that force India to make choices it does not want to make,” he told Al Jazeera. Alternatively, Team Trump may try to make a big deal with China to burnish its credentials as the ultimate dealmaker. This would leave India in a dilemma.”
Prasad also said that while he expects Indo-US relations to remain strong, there could be some hurdles if Trump decides to strengthen ties with Beijing.
In an editorial, the Global Times, the mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party, last week called for an approach to relations that focuses on cooperation between Beijing and Washington, especially in areas such as technology. Under President Joe Biden, the United States has imposed a series of sanctions and other restrictions on Chinese technology, especially on semiconductors. China responded with restrictions, including on the export of critical minerals to the United States.
India, for its part, is trying to do just that Riding uncertainty Regarding Trump’s approach towards China. Modi is expected to host a meeting between leaders of the Quad group – which includes the US, India, Japan and Australia – in 2025, which New Delhi wants Trump to travel to India to attend. On the other hand, China will host the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit this year, which Modi may travel there to attend.
After clashes between Indian and Chinese forces in Galwan in Ladakh in May 2020 that resulted in the deaths of at least 20 Indian soldiers, New Delhi cracked down on Chinese apps – banning TikTok. India has increased its scrutiny of Chinese investments and infrastructure projects in the country, citing national security concerns. But with inward foreign investment generally slowing, India’s finance ministry in 2024 made a case for encouraging Chinese investment again.
Amitabh Mathur, former special secretary at the Research and Analysis Wing, India’s external intelligence agency, said he believes the US has been aggressive in its approach towards China in recent years and has succeeded in positioning itself as a leading power in the Asia-Pacific region. . Strong relations between the United States and India have been key to Washington’s response to Beijing in the region.
While most experts expect Trump to continue this broad approach, some suggest that having allies like Musk on his team may mitigate what the US president is doing.
“I think the US pivot to India is unlikely to change in the broader context of the Indo-Pacific region — while it will try to reach a better deal with China,” said Anil Trigunayat, a retired Indian diplomat and strategic analyst. “There is no doubt that Musk and other industrialists on his team will try to manipulate excessive tariff plans.”
What question does India want answered?
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