Trump’s ambiguity is the worst world

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Donald Trump Vladimir Putin gave the huge position to an individual meeting. But he also raised the definitions of India to do business with the same man. Volodymyr Zelenskyy ambush in the oval office in February. But he hosted him again this week with some Bonhomie. As for the end of the war in Ukraine, it will not be granted that nation, which has violated a security guarantee that applies to Japan, the Philippines, or most Europe. But it does not exclude a kind of us.

For all these mystery cases, there is a normal reaction. “It can be worse.” I wonder.

If Trump is clear and consistent that he abandons Ukraine, as well as Europe and NATO, the continent will have no choice but self -sufficiency as soon as possible. It may fail, of course, but there may be little doubt what He should It is done. If Trump is clear and consistent that he is standing with democratic Europe, until death, there will be no problem. One of these cases is perfect. The other, although Grim is a driving force for Europe to change it: a fixed point that it can lead and voters plan around.

The worst world is the worlds that give Trump hot and cold, and we live in it. The danger is that Europe will have enough commitment from the United States to develop satisfaction but not enough to be safe from its enemies. Trump’s thought and energy will be devoted – a project that completely sanctifies European diplomats now – can be spent on building sovereign Europe, which requires not only money but endless political strings.

It was granted, and to keep Trump at least almost almost a nurser in Europe. The continent is not in a position that is allowed to replace the difficult American force yet. It is also a kind of moral risk.

Consider the future of Ukraine. If the United States is completely settled from the enforcement of any peace settlement, Europe will simply strengthen the country – by sending more weapons, by deploying the forces there – or risking the doorstep of its door after a few years. America’s partial commitment, which is the possibility of some security assurances, but not decisive, may be more worrying.

The crisis has its uses. Last February was the most expensive poetry of us in politics. In addition to the treatment of Zelenskyy, JD Vance Succor strongly gave German before the federal elections there. If there is nothing else, the shock of that month has focused on European minds. It is difficult to portray a German coalition government signature on theoretical aspect unlimited Borrowing of defense without raw shock to these events.

Now, imagine if the idea considers that February was a deviation, and that Trump may be a semi -usual partner after all: not Harry Truman, no, but not Charles Lindberg as well.

In this case, will European voters abandon private consumption and the welfare of the state to finance the reinforcement of the continent? Will their leaders surrender to the national forces so that Europe can make security decisions as one? Consider me doubtful. Especially if the popular parties carry a campaign on the platform of butter, La Gons in the next round of the general elections.

I do not suggest that Trump sends mixed signals to Stant Europe: to prevent it from adhering to the big project to become sovereignty. He loves the presence of people for him. Sir Kerr Starmer, Emmanuel Macron and Orrsola von der Lin were not racing to tend the president in the White House if he was fully committed to Ukraine’s security (because there will be no need) or his fully disdain (because there will be no feasibility). It is mystery, and the feeling that it can be gained, is the one who keeps them addicted to a drug addict. In parallel with other types of human relationships, with heart affairs in particular – should not need to be spent.

This explains the suspended definitions, up and down. The thing is that he behaves like this in local policy as well. Republicans can condemn Trump and later enter (Lindsay Graham) or go in the opposite direction (Steve Bannon). If he insists on permanent loyalties and permanent dandles, what is the incentive that anyone will have to absorb?

However, Trump does not need to try to sabotage European security to obtain this final effect. The absent America is bad, but at least it is analyzed to the ninth degree. Very little is said about America, which is doing enough to give Europe a false hope to save the post -1945 matter.

Of course, it can be obtained in both directions. Europe can pressure Trump to get in the short term without losing the vision of the final goal of increasing self -sufficiency. But looking at the record. This continent was still rolling around soft power after Russia entered Georgia in 2008 and the Crimea in 2014. Many governments refused to believe that Putin would go to all Ukraine even when US intelligence warned them in the winter of 2021-22. Many southern Europe are still making its feet around defensive spending. The slightest sign of the United States as returned to the defense of Europe and some voters will decide that re -arms is not very urgent. Rich and mature democracies are struggled for painful reform except in a crisis. Trump keeps Europe less. When the situation is “may be worse”, it is already.

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