Another interest rate in the United Kingdom seems to be increasingly unlikely

Traders see an increasing possibility that the Bank of England will keep interest rates hanging for the rest of the year, after inflation came in a Top of expected 3.8 % for the month of July.

On Wednesday, money markets were putting a possibility of 57 % on the remaining bank price at 4 % At the final meeting of England Bank for the year 2025 in December, according to LSEG data.

Expectations sided earlier in the summer to reduce at least a quarter of another point in 2025, especially given Moderate pace for economic expansionSigns Reducing wage growth And the certainty of the commercial front is increasing, after the United Kingdom got Early tariffs deal with the White House.

This has changed in the Bank of England Monetary policy meeting in August. The vote came to reduce prices through a small majority 5-4 unexpectedly, as opposition policy makers prefer another comment.

The correspondence on the Bank of England “focuses on pressing any continuous or emerging inflationary pressures” and that the ruler Andrew Billy He sees the risks of the upward trend on inflation expectations Amid the geopolitical uncertainty, the idea of the central bank has strengthened very warned of cutting very early.

The latest inflation versions on Wednesday produced a mixed image. The headlines were 3.8 %, a touch of 3.7 % consensus, a mark was placed in a Reuters poll, although it was in line with Boy’s private forecasts,, Who sees the price rise in its peak by 4 % in September before reducing it to 3.6 % by the end of the year.

The areas of attention include high food prices and high high inflation in the services sector – which some economists are due to the recent rise in the minimum wage Tax contributions to employers. However, the energy prices were applied the declining pressure in July.

Cathal Kennedy, UK’s chief economist at RBC Capital Markets, said that a reduction at the Pasis 25 point in November remained on the table-but only if inflation remains firm with BOE expectations and the labor market continues to mitigate.

At least, the printing of July “extinguishes the hope of reducing the interest rate in September,” said Surin Thero, director of economics at the Institute of Legal Accountants in England and Wales.

“Although the costs of escalating business and food prices may mean that the peak is 4 % higher than the Bank of England, it should start slowing in the fall as the weakest economy increases the prices,” Thero added.

The government will also feel nervous from expectations related to the most strict financial conditions that put pressure on borrowing costs in the United Kingdom. While the yield of the doctrine was widely lower on Wednesday, the re -allocation of expectations in recent weeks A 30 -year doctrine To its highest level since 1998, while the return for 10 years has reached a period of three months.

One of the assets that can benefit from its highest level rates is the British pound. While a flat against the US dollar and the euro on Wednesday, Matthew Ryan, head of the market strategy at EBURY, said that the pound sterling must remain “good supported during the remaining period of the year.”

The European Central Bank is It is widely considered that it has finished its policy episodeWith its main average now by 2 %. Meanwhile, questions about whether the Federal Reserve will resume interest rate discounts this year given the mysterious American inflation image. A The main update was set to come later on Wednesday With the launch of the meeting minutes.

However, given the view of Ing that many inflation pressure in July will prove a transition, its strategy warned on Wednesday against warning against chasing any post -printing gathering in the pound sterling.

Holly Eliaat of CNBC contributed to this story.