The markets are stealing water before Powell Jackson Hall’s speech

This week, brave arrows cannot be mobilized to bounce, with permission from the mixed winds mixed in the main data.

The path in the market was generally up to the summit hosted by Kansas City. In 2024, on Monday before the start of the Wyoming Conference, S&P reached 500 5,608. After a week and after the event ended, the index reached 5616. In 2023, the story was similar, as it rose 4,399 to 4433.

This year the market shows weaker signs. S&P closed yesterday 0.01 %, while Dao Jones fell 0.076 %. the Nasdak A minor was 0.03 %.

In Europe, FTSE increased in London by 0.2 % in early trading, DAX increased by 0.16 %, and Paris’s Cac 40 increased by 0.54 %. In Asia, Nikkei 225 decreased slightly by 0.38 %, and Hang Kong fell from Hang Kong by 0.2 %, while NIFTy 50 in India increased by 0.3 %.

Although European leaders are going down in Washington, DC, this week to support Ukrainian President Folodimir Zelinski in his battle against Russia, the markets are still looking for political geography and focused on monetary policy headlines at the weekend.

“We doubt the (Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome) Powell will not look like a market pricing,” Bank of America faced a note for customers this morning. “Powell’s comments are likely to be more balanced than at the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee in July, given that the work report in July reminds of the risks of the upholstery of the unemployment rate.

“We doubt that the reaction of the Jackson Hole in the knee will be different in the year 25 versus the duration of Powell. It is possible that the largest driver of the recent Federal Reserve Policy in the near -term is the recruitment report on September 5, which occurs two weeks after Jackson Hole,” the observation continued.

Previous hopes that Jackson Hall will provide a platform for a price discount that fades every day. previously CME’s Fedwatch September price in more than 95 %. Now this number decreases daily, and is currently 83 %.

The pavilions of the speculators have been restored by the PPI, which came in a little more hot than expected and suggested that the inflation associated with the tariff flows to work and may soon fall into consumer rolls. Moreover, the consumer price index last month returned more cold than fear but still hints to the basic tension with basic inflation from 3 %.

This opposes the negative aspect of the sudden work statistics office and its unwanted reviews to the recruitment scene. The Ministry of Labor stated that salary statements grew by only 73,000 last month, which is much lower than expectations for about 100,000. But the descending reviews of the previous months disturbed investors more than that, and revealed that the labor market had reached a short stop during the spring. The May balance has been reduced from 144,000 to 19,000, and the total June was reduced from only 147,000 to 14,000, which led to a joint reduction of 258,000. Average profit over the past three months is now only 35,000.

Less and less convinced

Despite a number of individuals in the Federal Open Market Committee, indicating that they want to see a reduction in the days after the labor market report, analysts still turn some of their bets to reduce (and increase economic activity).

“We have received a large number of economic data last week, but the real market in the market is going on this Friday:” Jackson Hall’s address coming from President Powell. ” Writing for WisdomtreeAnd where the chief economist is, Sigil added: “While inflation data in parts – especially PPI with a sharp leap in governor management fees – remains the basic story that price pressures are not accelerated in the areas monitored by the FBI closely.

“In fact, some prominent economists have reduced the PCE inflation estimate (Personal Consumption Expenditure) by five basis points, despite the noise of the title. This is a sign of this.

Siegel has long pressed for low prices, saying that monetary policy was excessively restricted given the health of the economy. He has also argued, like many, that the Federal Reserve needs to “see” inflation associated with tariffs as a single -time rise instead of the basic shift in the economy.

“We will get another report on jobs and printing inflation before the Federal Reserve meeting on September 17, but Jackson Hall’s speech on Friday will determine the tone,” Segel added. “If Powell admitted cooling in the labor markets and the benign trend in the basic PCE, it opens the door to reduce 25 points. If it stresses the need for more data and reduces modern smoothness, the markets will take it as a hawk sign, and I expect the risk markets to interact negatively.”

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