Openai is preparing to become the most valuable companies ever. Should it be?

According to Openai It is about to evaluate approximately $ 500 billion, a number that would make it the most valuable Private company In the world – Bigger from SpacexTikhak’s parent company BensanisAnd even public giants such as Balnter. It is an amazing number for a company with “Astronomical burning rate“How is this possible?

As axios ReportsThere is already a deal in playing: a tour led by Softbank, which is estimated at the company of $ 300 billion, which will not be closed until the end of the year, and a secondary sale to the shares of employees in a more severe evaluation of $ 500 billion. Most of the cheapest stocks have already been captured, leaving investors to fight more than shares.

An Openai investor – who spoke on condition of anonymity, cited NDA – to the dawn of the Internet. The investor tells me: “We are one of the biggest technological transformations (in history),” the investor tells me. “The results continue to get more than people think.”

The investor argues that mathematics to invest in the evaluation of $ 500 billion is clear and direct: virtual, if ChatgPT reaches two billion users and lasts in $ 5 per month per month – “half of things like Google or Facebook” – that is, $ 120 billion in annual revenue.

“This alone will support one and a half dollars, which is a very good return, just thinking about Chatgpt,” the investor says. “This does not include all the remaining things they work on, all institutional things, all the agents, and all the works they do on the devices.”

Trillion dollars

The number 5 dollars is, it is Muslim, the background mathematics. Today, ChatGPT 700 million weekly active users-and Less than 10 percent of them pay for that. (Openai refused to comment on this number.) The investor expectations are ambitious, and it seems that it reduces the threat of major players such as Google lunch or Meta Eate Openai. “The question of half a trillion dollars is now, to what extent Openai will be able to keep the clients they gained, and at the same time, are able to achieve its costs to the point where, in fact, in (default) $ 5 per user.” Aaron SondarajanProfessor at the College of Business Administration at New York University.

The bet here is that Openai is the following Facebook or Google. “They expect public subscription more than one trillion to three to three years, otherwise the rate of return does not justify investment” for investors who buy $ 500 billion, “says Galin Okon, a business professor at New York University. This would mean jumping to the best 10 public companies in the world almost overnight. The investor says they have a tallest time horizon than that, but “of course the public subscription is the most rational path given the company scale.” Although the investor admits, yes, the company will need to exceed the value of a trillion dollars to make the investment worthy of attention.

Strange things – especially to Openai. In the first seven months of 2025, the company Its expected double it The annual revenue to 12 billion dollars, indicating that Openai brings about one billion dollars a month. The institution’s accreditation also increased 5 million Pay business users this month. Not to mention what Possible ads revenues It can do to the end result. For the investor, these are signs of a momentum company to win: “People do not like unprecedented things, because most people love the match,” says the investor. “All this company has done unprecedented, from the growth of its revenues to artificial intelligence technology.”