Trump’s mutual definitions can be struck by just this month – and warning from the end of the economic world

On July 31, the Federal Appeal Court heard arguments in a case that defies the legal basis of customs duties under the IEEPA law, and the judges expressed deep doubts about the administration aspect.

In a memorandum last week, James Lucir from the capital Alfa Partners said a expected decision by the end of September, but may come in late August. The ruling can be granted unanimously or unanimously unacceptable the Supreme Court cover to avoid taking the case immediately and rejects the administration’s request to issue a residence that would keep the definitions in place in the meantime.

The terrible warnings also represent a “remarkable change in management by the administration, which has always insisted that it have a legal authority to complete deals in one way or another even if the IEPA tariff” added.

Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff helped benefit from a series of commercial deals, including An agreement with the European UnionWhich pledged to invest $ 600 billion in the United States and buy US energy products worth $ 750 billion, with “huge amounts” of American weapons in this mix. Likewise, the American -Japanese commercial deal requires 550 billion dollars in investments From Tokyo.

“Financial ruin”

The United States has not received immediate cash transfers in those sums. Still, in A letter to the American Appeal Court of the Federal Department On Monday, the Ministry of Justice officials suggested that the government will suddenly condemn money – spending the disaster.

The Attorney General d. John Sawir and Assistant Prosecutor Brett Chopt: “The president believes that our country will not be able to pay the trillion dollars that other countries have already adhered to, which may lead to financial ruin.”

They also warned that the relaxation of commercial deals would lead to a “result in 1929”. This was repeated by a post from Trump, in fact, a few days ago, when it was Fate with other great depression It will strike America if the court rules against the customs tariff.

Raise SAUER and SHUMATE Size up in their subsequent message, and clarify more depression warning.

“In such a scenario, people will be forced from their homes, millions of jobs will be eliminated, and the Americans who work hard for their savings, and even social security and medical care will be threatened,” they wrote. “In short, the economic consequences will be devastating, rather than unprecedented success.”

“The President is in the jam”

The government has certainly achieved significant revenues from the customs tariff since April, and importers who have paid mutual duties can seek compensation if they are neglected.

But this does not exceed about $ 100 billion and also includes revenues from the customs tariff imposed under a separate legal basis that is not at risk.

“The real problem, as the message explains, is that Trump has no legal authority to repeat the IEPA tariff under other tariff laws if the court strikes the IEPA tariff,” he explained to Lucir. “In other words, the president is in a jam because if the court strikes the IEPA tariff, his commercial deals have no legal basis.”

A note from Yardeni Research on Wednesday indicated that the administration has become increasingly concerned about the loss of the court’s case.

It seems that the message from the Ministry of Justice officials expects that they will lose the case because they are asking for a residence if the court faces them against them.

There will be “chaotic” consequences if mutual definitions are hit, according to Yardini, as Trump needs revenues from the customs tariff to reduce the budget deficit and help reduce bond returns.

“If he loses in court, these revenues may rise. Stock prices in this news may decrease at first due to a new round of uncertainty in politics.” “So the terrible tone in the message is understandable, although it reaches the top.”

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